Gold Outperforms in 2025 as Bitcoin Posts Its Weakest Annual Showing

Gold emerged as the top-performing major asset in 2025, while Bitcoin closed the year as the weakest performer among its peers — an unusual reversal that has reignited debate over whether the flagship cryptocurrency has entered a broader bear phase.

Market data shared by analyst Charlie Bilello shows that gold delivered a 64% gain over the year, placing it firmly at the top of cross-asset returns. Bitcoin, by contrast, finished 2025 down roughly 6%, marking the first recorded calendar year in which gold not only outperformed Bitcoin, but Bitcoin also ranked last among major asset classes. Historically, this outcome mirrors the inverse of conditions seen in 2013, when Bitcoin dramatically outpaced traditional safe havens.

Bitcoin’s Decline Meets Bear Market Criteria

Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 aligns with standard market definitions of a bear phase. After reaching a peak above $126,000 in October, BTC fell more than 20%, sliding below the $100,000 level. The magnitude of the drawdown, combined with fading momentum and weaker sentiment, placed Bitcoin within bear-market territory by conventional benchmarks.

Historical data referenced by analyst Ξliézer Ndinga highlights that Bitcoin has experienced two distinct types of downturns in the past. Long-cycle bear markets have typically produced average drawdowns of around 84%, lasting more than two years. Shorter corrective bear phases, on the other hand, have seen declines closer to 36%, usually resolving within a few months.

Notably, Bitcoin also ranked as the weakest major asset in 2018 and 2022, suggesting that under certain macro and liquidity conditions, the asset can lag both equities and commodities.

Q4 Losses Undermined Earlier Gains

Quarterly data reinforces the narrative of 2025 weakness. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin posted a -23.07% return in Q4 2025, significantly underperforming its historical fourth-quarter average gain of over 77%. This made it Bitcoin’s second-worst Q4 on record, surpassed only by the steep losses seen in late 2018.

Ethereum followed a similar path, recording a -28.28% decline in Q4, ranking among its poorest year-end performances historically.

Additional data from CryptoRank shows Bitcoin finishing 2025 with an annual loss of approximately 6.3%, breaking its long-observed four-year growth-and-decline cycle. While the first half of the year delivered intermittent upside, those gains were ultimately erased by heavy losses in the final quarter.

Heatmap analysis of crypto market performance from 2013 through early 2026 illustrates a familiar pattern: strong gains concentrated in select quarters, followed by periods where late-year weakness offsets earlier advances. In 2025, that imbalance tilted decisively to the downside.

As investors head deeper into 2026, gold’s standout performance and Bitcoin’s relative underperformance highlight a shifting risk landscape — one where traditional safe havens regained dominance while digital assets struggled to maintain momentum.

Disclaimer

The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are solely those of the author, Caleb Mwenda, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making financial decisions. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before engaging in any investment-related activity.

Gold Outperforms in 2025 as Bitcoin Posts Its Weakest Annual Showing was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.