Wall Street Senior Analyst Targets $500

MSTR stock price has dropped nearly 66% over the past six months, falling from above $450 to the $150 region, a decline that mirrors both Bitcoin’s drawdown and internal structural stress. This action wiped off the market capitalization of approximately over ninety billion dollars which necessitated a reassessment of leverage, dilution risk, and balance-sheet exposure. 

However, the decline also pushed MSTR price into a rare discount relative to its Bitcoin holdings, changing the risk-reward profile. The question is whether such compression is a structural damage or a reset stage before a more significant revaluation.

Wall Street Analyst Sees a $500 Re-Rating Scenario

Wall Street’s $500 outlook for MSTR stock price rests on balance-sheet mechanics rather than optimism. This view was reiterated by Lance Vitanza, senior analyst at TD Cowen. Strategy is in possession of approximately $59 billion worth of Bitcoin and trades at approximately 46 billion market capitalization. As a result, MSTR price trades at a 20-25% discount to net asset value. 

The historical NAV premium was eliminated by that discount created following dilution risk, index-removal issues as well as weaknesses in Bitcoin. Nonetheless, the assumption made by Vitanza presupposes that leverage can be reversed with the economic stabilization of Bitcoin.

At the same time, a near-term risk centers on the upcoming MSCI decision. January 15 is the date on which the MSCI will determine whether digital asset treasury firms should be treated as an investment fund. Failure would push Strategy out of key equity indices. 

JPMorgan estimates that this result would impose approximately 2.8 billion forced outflows. On the other hand, Peter Schiff argues that rising leverage and funding costs weaken long-term return potential. However, this view overlooks that Strategy’s leverage is asset-backed, not operating-loss driven, and remains directly tied to Bitcoin’s balance-sheet value. Therefore, even without premium expansion, partial normalization toward net asset value continues to support a conditional re-rating toward the $450–$500 zone if Bitcoin stabilizes.

MSTR Stock Price Holds Above Critical Support

MSTR stock price completed a prolonged downside cycle into the $150-$157 base after months of lower highs. This field now forms the recovery floor structure. Stabilization of price occurred at this point after it was unable to extend losses which indicates exhaustion by the sellers.

From this base, price first targets $200.45, a former pivot likely to generate mild volatility. A sustained hold above $200.45 would confirm improving demand strength.  A sustained hold above $200.45 would confirm improving demand strength.

That outcome opens a move toward $242.29, another reaction level where momentum may pause.

However, the expansion of the momentum is limited until the price goes near to $342.50. The level is a significant volatility level because of the historical consolidation and distribution. Acceptance above 342.50 would establish structural repair as opposed to a reflex bounce.

Price may then swing up to around $430.93 where history shows it was rejected leading to volatility risk. Beyond that, the last structural barrier is $456.47. Clearance there allows it to accelerate to the $500 region.

At the time of press, RSI supports an upward price movement. The indicator holds steady at 36, above oversold ground. Such action clarifies fading sell pressure. RSI flattening is biased towards base-building, as compared to continuation. Any breakdown below 150 nullifies this course.

Conclusion 

MSTR stock price now trades on structure, leverage, and balance-sheet math rather than narrative. Recovery is the winning trend as long as price is above the $150 base.

The structure aligns with Wall Street’s conditional re-rating thesis toward $500. This, however, is nullified in case of sustained underperformance below $150. Then downside continuation takes recovery expectations.