Fed grapples with fake data and political scrutiny while plotting 2026 rate strategy
The Fed enters 2026 under pressure from politics, courts, markets, and its own calendar. The largest central bank on the planet is dealing with leadership uncertainty, public attacks from Donald Trump, and a rate strategy narrowed by steady growth and sticky inflation.
Policymakers are trying to plan for the year ahead after delivering three straight interest rate cuts while facing louder dissent inside the committee and rising attention on how data is gathered and used.
Those three cuts now hang over every 2026 decision.Expectations for solid growth and ongoing price pressures make additional reductions harder to justify.What looks clear is that the turbulence from the prior year did not fade.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said the attention will not ease. “There’ll be a big spotlight. There’ll be lots of intrigue,” Kathy said. She added that uncertainty keeps the Fed “in the hot seat too.”
Trump escalates pressure as legal and leadership deadlines collide
The past year pushed the Fed into fights it rarely faces. As Donald Trump began his second term in the White House, he repeatedly threatened to fire Chair Jerome Powell over the pace of rate cuts.
Midyear scrutiny then turned to cost overruns tied to a renovation project at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Between those episodes, Trump sought to remove Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations that have not been proven and were never filed as formal charges.
All of this unfolded while the administration searched for Powell’s successor.His chair term expires in May, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ran interviews that included as many as 11 candidates.The clock tightens in January.A Supreme Court hearing on Jan. 21 is scheduled to decide whether Trump has authority to remove Lisa.
One week later, the Federal Open Market Committee meets to vote on interest rates. Trump is expected to name his chair pick during the month. Jerome has not said whether he will stay on the Board of Governors, where his term runs until January 2028.
There also have been multiple dissents at recent rate votes, and new regional presidents set to come on board at the FOMC have a hawkish bent, meaning they’re likely to resist additional cuts. “It’s still a tough spot for the Fed,” Kathy said.
Data, labor, and AI complicate rate planning for 2026
Despite the noise, Wall Street expects policymakers to keep working toward a neutral rate near 3 percent. The federal funds rate sits about half a percentage point above where most committee members see it in the long run.
Kathy said Jerome helped guide three consecutive quarter-point cuts and was not blocking action. Future decisions depend on incoming numbers. She expects two cuts, one around midyear and another near year-end.
The committee’s dot plot points to one cut. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and analysts at Citigroup see labor weakness that could support three. Jerome and his colleagues have said decisions will follow data rather than political pressure.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, sees less room. He expects only one reduction. “The winds are really changing for the U.S. economy,” Torsten said in a CNBC interview. He noted that tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty weighed on 2025, while fiscal stimulus and a steadier labor market now support growth. “The tailwinds are beginning to accumulate and making it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates,” he said.
Another variable is artificial intelligence.Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said its impact on productivity and hiring matters for policy communication.“The Fed this year has got a real challenge in terms of communicating their strategy,” Joseph said, pointing to heavy investment in advanced technology.
After a slow start to 2026, the economy grew strongly in the middle quarters and is tracking near 3 percent growth late in the year, based on Atlanta Fed estimates.
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