Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Average 30% Annual Growth for the Next Decade

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could grow at ~30% per year over the next 10 years—a pace that, if sustained, would put BTC at over $1.4 million by 2035.

The Math (Why $1.4M Is Plausible If 30% Holds)

Compound growth is powerful:

• Starting price (approx.): $90,000
• Annual growth: 30%
• Time horizon: 10 years

90,000×(1.30)10≈1.4–1.5 million90{,}000 \times (1.30)^{10} \approx 1.4\text{–}1.5 \text{ million}90,000×(1.30)10≈1.4–1.5 million

Small differences in starting price don’t materially change the outcome.

What Would Drive 30% CAGR?

Hougan’s thesis rests on structural demand, not hype:

• Institutional adoption via ETFs, pensions, and endowments
• Sovereign and corporate treasuries allocating small percentages
• Shrinking effective supply (lost coins + long‑term holders)
• Post‑halving dynamics reducing new issuance
• Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value competing with gold and bonds

At ~$1.4M per BTC, Bitcoin’s market cap would be roughly $28–30 trillion, comparable to—or exceeding—gold.

Why 30% Is Aggressive but Not Absurd

• Bitcoin’s 15‑year CAGR is far higher than 30%
• As assets mature, growth slows—but monetary assets scale differently
• Even partial success (20% CAGR) would still imply massive appreciation

The key assumption: Bitcoin continues transitioning from a niche asset to a core macro allocation.

Risks to the Thesis

• Regulatory or political backlash
• Technological or protocol‑level failures
• Demand plateauing earlier than expected
• Competing monetary technologies

30% CAGR is not smooth—volatility would remain extreme.

Bottom Line

Matt Hougan’s projection isn’t a prediction of straight‑line gains—it’s a framework. If Bitcoin continues absorbing capital as a global store of value, 30% annual growth is mathematically sufficient to reach $1.4M+ by 2035.

Whether that path unfolds depends less on charts—and more on adoption, trust, and time.