Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, attention has turned to the country’s transition to new leadership — and one Bitcoiner is in the running to lead that charge.
María Corina Machado, Venezuelan opposition leader and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, is the second-favorite to lead Venezuela’s shift away from authoritarian rule under Maduro, who has been transferred to New York to face federal charges related to narcotics trafficking and corruption.
Data from predictions market Kalshi shows Machado has a 28% chance of leading Venezuela by the end of 2026, trailing only Unitary Platform’s Edmundo González Urrutia (32%), who is widely believed to have won Venezuela’s election in May 2025 but was blocked from assuming the presidency by Maduro’s United Socialist Party.
In third is Vice President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez (27%), Maduro’s former running mate, who was appointed acting president by Venezuela’s Supreme Court following Maduro’s capture.
Odds on who will lead Venezuela by the end of 2026. Source: KalshiUS President Donald Trump said that the US would run Venezuela until a new leadership is established, raising uncertainty about the country’s short-term future.
A Machado-led Venezuela could see basic human rights and political freedom restored, as well as a sharp turn toward free-market reforms, including the use of Bitcoin (BTC) as an alternative to the crippling Venezuelan bolivar, which has lost more than 99.99% of its purchasing power since Maduro took office in 2013.
Bitcoin has been a “lifeline” for Venezuelans: Machado
Speaking with the Human Rights Foundation’s chief strategy officer, Alex Gladstein, in late 2024, Machado envisioned making Bitcoin a national reserve asset and assisting its adoption as a payments solution:
“Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape,” Machado said at the time.
Over 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country since Maduro took over in 2013, and crypto has been one of several payment tools used to send money back to family members.
Trump is not confident about Machado
Machado’s odds on Kalshi briefly overtook González’s on Saturday, but fell after US President Donald Trump said she doesn’t have the respect to lead Venezuela out of Maduro’s regime.
Trump’s take has been opposed by several political analysts familiar with Venezuela’s situation, including the founder and CEO of Project Pulso, Liz Rebecca Alarcón, who told ABC that the opposition leader already has overwhelming support.
Machado was widely tipped to beat Maduro in the 2025 election, but was controversially banned from running by the Supreme Court for alleged administrative irregularities and purported violations of electoral law.
Related: Bitcoin price $90K breakout hangs in balance as US storms Venezuela
Maduro’s Venezuela shut down Bitcoin miners
The United Socialist Party, which Rodríguez now leads, has a long history of seizing Bitcoin miners and shutting down facilities, often citing illegal power use or lack of permits.
Source: Pierre RochardThe Trump administration spoke with Rodríguez on Saturday, who initially signaled willingness to cooperate but later backtracked, calling Maduro’s capture an “illegal kidnapping” and the US operation a breach of Venezuela’s sovereignty.
“If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
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