Analysis: The recent increased correlation between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets reinforces bullish expectations from the beginning of the year.

PANews reported on January 5th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that after most of December's narrow trading range, cryptocurrencies broke upwards in early Asian trading, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing the $92,000 and $3,100 marks respectively. This surge coincided with a rise in stock markets and a decline in oil prices following US action that led to the detention of Venezuelan President Maduro. The recent increased correlation between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets may signal a shift in market dynamics and a strengthening of the bullish narrative in the new year—especially given the end of year-end tax-deductible selling and the impending enactment of new crypto legislation.

While these narratives may already be largely reflected in market prices, a sudden move by Washington against Venezuela could still be a catalyst for Bitcoin in the near term. In addition to the deflationary effects of falling oil prices, market rumors have resurfaced claiming that Venezuela may control a substantial "shadow" Bitcoin reserve, possibly comparable in size to Strategy's holdings. These claims have not yet been confirmed. If true, Venezuela would become the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin. Furthermore, if the US were to add any potentially confiscated Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, it would reduce the likelihood of a forced sell-off.

In options, market positioning is shifting towards a more positive direction: put skew has decreased across all maturities, and over 3,000 call options expiring on January 30, 2026, with a strike price of $100,000 have been bought since last week. Demand for positioning through straddles is also significant, reflecting some short covering during Bitcoin's upward movement. If spot prices continue to rise, it could trigger a gamma-driven acceleration. However, recent US trading sessions have often seen pullbacks, and caution is advised until this pattern is broken.