ASML Stock: Named Top European Semiconductor Pick for 2026

TLDR

• Bernstein lifts ASML rating to Outperform from Market Perform and increases price target to €1,300 from €800
• Leading DRAM producers set to add 250,000 wafers per month of new capacity in 2026
• New 1c DRAM node requires 28% lithography intensity versus 20-24% for older nodes
• TSMC boosting 3nm production capacity to 180-200,000 wafers monthly to meet AI processor demand
• Analyst forecasts 18% annual EPS growth for ASML through 2027, beating 15% consensus

Shares of ASML jumped 3.7% in Amsterdam on Monday following a bullish analyst call. Bernstein SocGen Group lifted its rating on the semiconductor equipment maker to Outperform from Market Perform.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The investment firm set a new price target of €1,300, up from €800 previously. That represents potential gains of about 32% from recent trading levels.

ASML earned the distinction of being Bernstein’s favorite European chip stock for 2026. The call is based on strengthening memory chip investments and growing logic chip requirements.

The stock’s valuation looks attractive relative to history. ASML trades at about 1x its equipment peers versus a long-term average of 1.6x.

David Dai, the Bernstein analyst behind the upgrade, sees a memory chip upcycle taking shape. He believes investors are missing how much capacity the big memory makers plan to build.

Three major DRAM manufacturers intend to bring up to 250,000 wafers per month of fresh capacity online in 2026. That’s a substantial boost to global production potential.

Memory Makers Rush to New Manufacturing Technology

The DRAM industry is moving quickly to adopt 1c node technology. This transition matters for companies selling chipmaking equipment.

Bernstein calculates that 1c nodes need 28% lithography intensity. That compares to just 20-24% for earlier generation nodes.

More intensity means more equipment purchases per wafer produced. ASML’s tools become more essential as manufacturers adopt the new technology.

Worries about a shift to 4F² structure have faded for now. That change would reduce demand for extreme ultraviolet equipment.

Memory chip makers are focusing on getting production running smoothly rather than cutting costs. This approach keeps EUV tool demand strong into the late 2020s.

AI Processors Create Additional Equipment Requirements

TSMC plans to scale 3nm capacity up to 180-200,000 wafers each month. The Taiwan foundry needs more capacity to build AI chips.

The 3nm process uses more lithography than any other manufacturing node. Graphics processors and AI accelerators heading to market over the next 24 months will mostly use 3nm.

Major chip foundries are racing to expand their most advanced production lines. AI applications are driving unprecedented demand for cutting-edge semiconductors.

Bernstein now models 18% compound annual growth for ASML’s earnings per share from 2025 through 2027. The Wall Street consensus sits at 15% for the same timeframe.

Dai characterizes the next two years as a sweet spot for EUV technology and ASML. Both the memory and logic sectors are lining up as growth engines.

The upgrade reflects multiple positive trends happening simultaneously. DRAM expansion and advanced logic buildouts are both pointing toward strong equipment orders.

ASML’s stock gained ground in European trading. The shares closed at €984 by midday, up from €950 at Friday’s close.

Bernstein initiated coverage of several European semiconductor stocks. ASML received the firm’s most bullish stance among the companies analyzed.

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