Crypto Market Structure Legislation Unlikely Before 2027, Says Report

TLDR

• TD Cowen expects the U.S. crypto market structure bill to face delays until at least 2027.
• Full enforcement of the bill may not occur before 2029 due to extended rulemaking processes.
• The primary obstacle is a political dispute over conflict-of-interest provisions targeting senior government officials.
• Democrats want restrictions on crypto business ties for figures like President Donald Trump and his family.
• Senate passage requires 60 votes which makes quick progress difficult amid a divided Congress.

Lawmakers continue debating U.S. crypto regulations as fresh projections suggest delays, with enforcement potentially stretching to 2029, per TD Cowen.

The crypto market structure bill, meant to establish oversight for digital assets, now faces further delays. According to TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, lawmakers may not pass the bill until 2027, and implementation may not arrive before 2029. Political disputes, especially over ethics provisions, are central to the slowdown.

Conflict-of-Interest Rules Remain the Key Roadblock

Democrats continue to push for rules restricting crypto business involvement by senior officials, including President Donald Trump. The report from TD Cowen highlights that these provisions have created friction between the two parties. “This has become one of the bill’s most contentious elements,” stated Jaret Seiberg, TD Cowen’s managing director.

Some Republicans strongly oppose these restrictions, leading to a legislative impasse. Democrats want the rules in place before enforcement begins, while Republicans resist limitations targeting Trump and his family. Trump’s personal and family links to crypto ventures have intensified political resistance.

Bloomberg previously estimated Trump-related crypto efforts earned $620 million by mid-2025. These include World Liberty Financial and holdings in American Bitcoin, among others. Lawmakers have raised concerns over memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA launched before his presidency.

To ease tensions, TD Cowen suggested a compromise. Ethics provisions could take effect three years after enactment. This delay would remove Trump from immediate coverage but may not satisfy Democrats, who may still demand a broader postponement.

Bill Faces Procedural and Political Barriers

The House passed its version of the crypto market structure bill last year. However, Senate progress has slowed due to divided views and procedural hurdles. Any final bill would need 60 votes in the Senate.

Even with full Republican support, Democrats must contribute at least seven votes. TD Cowen reported that some Republicans may also oppose the current version, giving Democrats more leverage. This combination of factors complicates the bill’s path forward.

Democrats may prefer delaying the vote until after the 2026 midterms. If they regain the House, they could shape the bill’s final form and timeline. TD Cowen believes this political calculation reduces urgency.

Jaret Seiberg said both parties have prepared legislative text over the past year. “The groundwork is done, so it could move fast if incentives change,” he wrote. For now, the political environment remains resistant.

The GENIUS Act, focused on stablecoins, passed earlier but included a three-year rollout. Lawmakers see the current bill as the next step. However, its broader scope and deeper divides slow momentum.

Implementation May Not Arrive Before 2029

TD Cowen projected that even if Congress passes the bill in 2027, rulemaking will take time. Agencies like the SEC and CFTC would then define specific regulations. This process could last until 2029.

While limited measures like the GENIUS Act or executive actions may offer short-term clarity, full reform remains distant. According to Seiberg, “Delay is no longer due to drafting—it’s strategy.” Thus, the final implementation timeline hinges on shifting political priorities.

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