Bitcoin Rallies to $93K: 2026 Opens Strong with Bulls Squeezing Shorts

TLDR:

• Bitcoin traded within a narrow 3% range during the holiday period before rallying to $93,000 levels.
• Support holds near $80,000 True Market Mean while resistance clusters between $95,000 and $105,000.
• Checkonchain analysts focus on onchain data and futures positioning rather than speculative forecasts.
• Recent price action mirrors 2022 consolidation patterns following major market volatility events.

Bitcoin has started 2026 with a strong rally back to $93,000, squeezing short positions. The market shows signs of shifting toward healthier spot-driven dynamics. 

Trading remained within a narrow $2,500 range during the holiday period. Key support sits near $80,000 while resistance levels cluster between $95,000 and $105,000. 

Analysts from Checkonchain are examining onchain data, ETF flows, and futures markets to assess seller exhaustion and excessive leverage conditions.

Trading Range and Technical Levels Shape Near-Term Outlook

Bitcoin traded within a tight 3% range during the two-week holiday period ending in early January. The narrow trading corridor mirrors conditions seen at the end of 2022. 

Back then, the market experienced a mere $250 range following the FTX collapse. The current price action near $93,000 pushes toward the upper boundary of the range established since November.

Support levels have formed around the True Market Mean at approximately $80,000. This metric represents the average cost basis across the network. 

Above current prices, traders face multiple resistance zones between $95,000 and $105,000. Breaking through these levels would require sustained buying pressure and increased volume.

Bears argue for a potential decline toward the Realized Price and 200-week moving average near $56,000. Meanwhile, bulls dismiss the traditional four-year cycle pattern as obsolete. 

However, market predictions remain speculative as price movements depend on various factors. Nobody can accurately forecast how 2026 will unfold for digital assets.

Data-Driven Approach Replaces Speculative Forecasting

The Checkonchain team has adopted a methodical approach to market analysis for 2026. Rather than offering price predictions, analysts focus on current market conditions.

They examine onchain metrics, exchange-traded fund flows, and futures market positioning. This comprehensive assessment aims to identify signs of seller exhaustion across different market segments.

Leverage levels in futures markets deserve particular attention as excessive positioning often precedes corrections. When bears become overconfident and increase short positions, markets can experience sharp squeezes. 

The recent rally to $93,000 already forced some short sellers to close positions. Understanding whether this trend continues requires monitoring actual trading behavior rather than assumptions.

Market participants benefit more from understanding present conditions than speculating about future scenarios. The focus remains on reading what markets actually demonstrate through trading volumes and position changes. 

This practical approach helps identify whether bulls have sustainable momentum or bears will regain control. The coming weeks will reveal whether the current rally represents a genuine trend reversal or temporary relief.

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