Tesla (TSLA) Stock Rises After Trump Praise Despite Delivery Miss

TLDR

• Tesla shares gained 3% to $451.05 following President Trump’s public endorsement of Elon Musk and praise for Tesla’s innovation leadership.
• The company’s Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries fell to 418,227 units, a 16% year-over-year decline that missed Wall Street forecasts.
• Development troubles with the Optimus humanoid robot continue, with manual assembly and software issues preventing commercial deployment.
• Energy storage operations hit a record 46.7 GWh deployed in 2025, providing a rare bright spot in otherwise challenging results.
• Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Overweight rating intact with a $510 price target, highlighting potential catalysts including FSD expansion.

Tesla shares popped 3% on January 6, reaching $451.05 as Wall Street digested a mix of political support and operational challenges. President Donald Trump delivered a public endorsement of Elon Musk, describing him as a leading innovator and framing Tesla as emblematic of American tech prowess.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The comments appear calculated to build bridges with Silicon Valley ahead of the upcoming election cycle. Investors took notice, pushing the stock higher in Monday trading.

But beneath the surface, Tesla’s fundamental picture looks shaky. The automaker delivered just 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. That came in below the Street’s 422,850 estimate and represented a sharp 16% decline from the prior year period.

The annual numbers tell a similar story. Tesla moved 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, falling short of its 2 million goal. It’s the second consecutive year the company has missed its delivery targets and posted declining volume.

Demand headwinds are mounting. The phase-out of EV subsidies in major markets is taking a toll. So is intensifying competition from both Chinese manufacturers and established European brands.

Despite the miss, Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its bullish stance. The firm maintained an Overweight rating and $510 target price, pointing to upcoming product launches and technology rollouts as reasons for optimism.

The analyst outlook hinges on several potential catalysts. Tesla plans to expand Full Self-Driving capabilities into China and Europe during the first half of 2026. The Robotaxi network should grow later in the year. Cybercab production is scheduled to begin, and Semi truck manufacturing should ramp up in Q2.

Humanoid Robot Program Hits Snags

Tesla’s Optimus project isn’t progressing as planned. The humanoid robot initiative has encountered multiple technical hurdles that threaten Musk’s aggressive timeline.

People familiar with the project say the robots still require manual assembly. The machines lack sophisticated motor control necessary for industrial applications. Software integration problems persist without clear solutions.

Musk has positioned Optimus as a potential game-changer for Tesla’s valuation. He’s suggested the robots could eventually dwarf the company’s automotive business. But those claims now face scrutiny as deadlines slip.

Early expectations called for widespread factory deployment by 2026. Those goals have been quietly walked back. Commercial viability remains uncertain as engineering challenges mount.

The timing is less than ideal. With vehicle sales weakening, Tesla needs its next-generation projects to gain traction. The company’s strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence and robotics was supposed to open new revenue streams. So far, it’s more promise than reality.

Storage Business Delivers Growth

Tesla’s energy storage division provided welcome relief. The segment deployed 14.2 GWh in Q4 2025, topping expectations of 13.4 GWh and outpacing the 11.0 GWh from the year-ago quarter.

Annual performance was even stronger. Energy storage deployments reached 46.7 GWh for 2025, crushing the prior year’s 31.4 GWh. The growth stands out given pressure on Tesla’s overall profitability, with gross margins at 17.01% over the trailing twelve months.

From a technical perspective, the stock is testing key support levels. Price action is holding above $430, which lines up with both the 50-day moving average and the uptrend line drawn from October lows. A breakdown below this zone could trigger selling toward the $400-$410 area.

Momentum readings are neutral with a slight bullish tilt. The RSI is tracking just under 60, leaving headroom before reaching overbought territory. The MACD recently crossed bullish, though the signal lacks strong conviction based on histogram depth.

Volume patterns haven’t shown decisive institutional buying. The recent uptick appears driven more by speculation than accumulation. That suggests the rally could be vulnerable to negative news or sentiment shifts.

On the upside, resistance waits near $475. That’s where gains stalled in mid-December. Breaking through would likely require concrete progress on vehicle demand or meaningful updates on autonomous driving and robotics programs.

Analysts expect a trading range between $430 and $480 through the first quarter. Price movement will probably track sentiment around macro conditions, political developments, and any AI or robotics announcements from the company.

Tesla is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on January 28 after the closing bell. Vehicle production totaled 434,358 units in Q4 2025, down from 459,445 in the same quarter of 2024.

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