Altcoins face $657 mln supply shock: Is capital moving away from Bitcoin?

Token unlocks can be a double-edged sword for the market. 

From an economic standpoint, a high token supply can weigh on sentiment, especially if underlying bid pressure is weak. Yet, the upcoming $657 million in token unlocks couldn’t be arriving at a better time.

On the macro side, risk-on sentiment is back. Around $250 billion has flowed in since 2026 started, and only 40% went into Bitcoin [BTC]. Why it matters: This points to a “market-led” rally rather than a BTC-driven one.

However, the question remains: Is this the start of a full-blown alt season? 

Historically, altcoin cycles tend to begin after ALT/BTC bottoms and breaks out.

Take the Q4 2016 cycle: ALT/BTC bottomed, broke its downtrend, and Q1–Q2 2017 saw a major alt run, pushing the Altcoin Season Index to 100.

Notably, a similar pattern appears to be forming now. ALT/BTC has been down for four years, RSI is extremely oversold, and MACD is finally turning green after 21 months.

It looks like the downtrend bottomed in Q4 2025.

Taken together, both the technical and macro setups indicate that the upcoming token unlocks could fuel more liquidity into altcoins. However, the question remains: Which altcoins will see the biggest supply hit?

Altcoins eye a rotation as major unlocks hit the market

Over $657 million in token unlocks are scheduled for this week.

However, the timing differs: one-time unlocks, like HYPE and APT, could hit the market all at once. Meanwhile, linear unlocks, like SOL, TRUMP, and DOGE, release $1 million+ daily, gradually adding supply.

Among the one-time cliff altcoins, Hyperliquid [HYPE], for example, will see nearly $330 million worth of HYPE released. At the current market price, that amounts to roughly 12.7 million HYPE tokens entering the market.

On-chain, it looks well positioned to handle the pressure.

According to CoinGlass, Hyperliquid’s open interest (OI) sits at $8.79 billion, above 24h trading volume of $7 billion, with TVL at $4.30 billion. This also makes it the top DEX token, reinforcing a strong bid wall underneath.

Combined with the technical setup, this could push more capital into alts. If this trend holds, next week could finally see the Altcoin Season Index break out versus Bitcoin, potentially signaling the start of the next altcoin cycle.

Final Thoughts

• One-time cliff unlocks like HYPE and APT could hit the market all at once, while linear unlocks like SOL, TRUMP, and DOGE gradually add supply.
• Oversold ALT/BTC, green MACD, and strong on-chain metrics could fuel a market-led rotation, potentially breaking out the Altcoin Season Index versus BTC.