Solana Breaks Bitcoin Correlation as Bulls Eye $146 Resistance

Jessie A Ellis
Jan 07, 2026 05:00

SOL trading at $138.76 shows rare independence from Bitcoin’s decline, with technical momentum building toward a crucial test of yearly resistance levels.

Solana carved out its own path Monday, posting modest gains while Bitcoin stumbled through another 1.27% decline—a divergence that hasn’t been seen consistently since the altcoin rally of early 2024. The world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $138.76, positioning itself for what technical analysts describe as a make-or-break test of resistance at $146.91.

Decoupling Signal Emerges

The independence from Bitcoin’s gravitational pull represents more than a statistical anomaly. Market participants note that Solana’s relative strength suggests institutional appetite remains robust despite broader crypto market uncertainty. This behavioral shift echoes the pattern observed during Solana’s breakout run in March 2024, when SOL gained 40% while Bitcoin traded sideways.

Trading volume on Binance reached $526 million over the past 24 hours, indicating sustained interest at current levels. The price action has kept SOL firmly above its 20-day moving average of $128.01, a critical technical floor that bulls have defended successfully for the past two weeks.

Analyst Conviction Builds

Technical indicators present a compelling bull case for the near term. The MACD histogram reading of 2.35 represents the strongest bullish momentum signal since December, according to data from Binance. Meanwhile, SOL’s position at 0.96 on the Bollinger Bands scale places it just shy of the upper boundary—historically a precursor to either a breakout or sharp pullback.

“We’re seeing classic accumulation behavior around the $135-140 range,” notes one institutional trader who requested anonymity. The RSI at 61.61 sits comfortably in neutral territory, providing room for upward movement without triggering overbought conditions that have historically preceded corrections.

However, skeptics point to a glaring weakness in the current setup. Solana remains 44% below its 52-week high of $247.50, and the 200-day moving average at $172.83 continues to act as formidable long-term resistance. Critics argue that without a broader crypto market rally, SOL lacks the momentum needed for sustained gains beyond short-term technical targets.

Technical Roadmap Takes Shape

The immediate path forward hinges on SOL’s ability to clear the $143.48 resistance level—Monday’s session high that marked the upper boundary of the recent trading range. A clean break above this threshold opens the door to the more significant $146.91 resistance, where profit-taking from longer-term holders could create selling pressure.

For bulls, the trade setup offers attractive risk-reward dynamics. Entry near current levels with a stop-loss below the $128 support zone provides roughly 8% downside protection while targeting the $146-150 range represents 5-8% upside potential. The daily Average True Range of $5.98 suggests normal volatility conditions, reducing the likelihood of sudden gap moves that could invalidate technical levels.

Bears should watch for any break below the $134.92 seven-day moving average, which would signal a potential return to the broader trading range. A more decisive failure under $128 could trigger a retest of the psychological $120 support zone.

The Verdict

Solana’s technical momentum and Bitcoin decoupling create a narrow window for upside acceleration toward $146 over the next 7-10 days. The setup favors bulls, but success depends entirely on maintaining support above $134 while broader market conditions remain stable.

The key level to monitor is $143.48—a break above this resistance with volume would confirm the bullish thesis and potentially attract momentum traders seeking exposure to altcoin strength. Until then, SOL remains range-bound with a bullish bias, offering tactical opportunities for traders willing to manage tight risk parameters.

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