Oil falls as Trump says Venezuela will send supply to US

• Trump says Venezuela to export $2bn of oil to US
• Deal to redirect country’s exports to US from China
• US WTI down $1, Brent 81 cents lower

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the US had reached a deal to import $2 billion of Venezuelan crude, a move that is expected to increase supplies to the world’s largest oil consumer.

Brent crude futures fell 81 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $59.89 a barrel at 05:50 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude lost $1, or 1.7 percent, at $56.13 a barrel.

Both benchmarks extended declines of more than $1 from the previous trading session, as market participants expected ample global supply this year.

The deal could initially require cargoes that were originally bound for China to be rerouted. Venezuela could be seeking to unload millions of barrels of oil that are stranded in tankers and storage facilities to avoid further escalations with the US.

Trump had demanded that Venezuela open up to US oil companies or risk escalating military intervention. After that, US forces captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro at the weekend.

Analysts say the agreement would keep prices low in an oversupplied market.

“Venezuela’s oil exports to the United States have first and foremost disrupted the US market, which will also deepen the global oversupply,” said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures.

Further reading:

• For Opec, Venezuela is a strategic alarm rather than a supply shock
• Trump’s Venezuela raid will have a seismic impact
• Opec+ holds output steady despite rift among members

Morgan Stanley analysts estimated the oil market could reach a surplus of as many as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, based on weak growth in demand last year and rising supply from Opec and non-Opec producers.

However, the prospect of higher, cheaply extracted Venezuelan oil exports could pause expansions of productive capacity in the US and elsewhere, analysts at BMI said in a note on Wednesday. BMI is a unit of Fitch Solutions.

Venezuela has been selling its flagship crude grade, Merey, at around $22 per barrel below Brent for delivery at its ports.

“That raises the expected price of oil over the medium term, especially if the Venezuelan regime survives,” the BMI analysts wrote.