Used vehicle prices expected to increase in 2026, Cox reports

DETROIT — Prices of used vehicles are expected to rise this year but at a historically stable rate, according to auto data and insights firm Cox Automotive.

Cox on Thursday forecast that wholesale prices on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will end this year 2% higher than December 2025. The index tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions.

This year’s increase would compare with 0.4% increases during each of the past two years following declines of 7% and nearly 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively, from inflated prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Used vehicle prices during that time increased at historically high rates of 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020.

The overall stability in pricing is a win for potential car buyers. However, used vehicle prices are still higher than they were before the pandemic. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices, but they have not fallen as quickly as wholesale prices in recent years.

The average index move at the end of each year is an increase of roughly 2%, according to Cox data going back to 1998. That excludes the outlier years of 2021 and 2022.

Pricing will fluctuate month to month due to selling seasonality and other factors. A regular month-to-month move in the index during the year is only 0.2%, Cox said.

“As we move into 2026, a few positive indicators are emerging: New and used auto loan rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, and consumers will soon see increased tax refunds hit their wallets,” Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive interim chief economist, said in a statement. “As this plays out, we are expecting to see stronger demand in the auto market as the year gets underway.”

Used vehicle sales year over year are expected to fall by 0.9% to 38.3 million in 2026, according to Cox. That forecast includes 20.3 million used vehicle retail sales, a 0.7% decrease.