Institutions: US non-farm payroll growth expected to be weak in December amid pressure from AI and tariffs.

PANews reported on January 9th that, according to Jinshi, institutional analysis indicates that US job growth may slow in December due to companies remaining cautious about hiring due to import tariffs and increased investment in artificial intelligence. However, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%, which may support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The non-farm payroll report expected to be released tonight is likely to show that the US labor market remains in what economists and policymakers call a "no hiring, no layoffs" mode. This would also confirm that the US economy is in a phase of jobless expansion. In the third quarter of last year, economic growth and worker productivity surged, partly attributed to a surge in artificial intelligence spending. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, stated, "This isn't entirely due to weak demand, as the economy appears to be performing well, but companies are very cautious about hiring new employees. This could be related to a willingness to control costs, perhaps due to tariff pressures, or perhaps because many companies believe that AI-driven automation will lead to productivity gains."