Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Risks Falling to $2.6K if This Key Level Cracks

Ethereum continues to show resilience in early 2026, despite an increasingly tense macro backdrop. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and US–China tensions have shaken global risk appetite, yet crypto markets remain surprisingly stable.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH has broken above the broad descending channel. After bouncing strongly from the green demand zone near $2,600 in mid-December, the price managed to reclaim the $3,000 psychological mark. However, the rally stalled just under the $3,500 resistance band, which aligns with both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages. This zone has acted as a strong supply wall in recent months.

While the RSI showed strong momentum during the bounce, it has started turning lower, suggesting the rally may be losing steam. If bulls fail to push above the channel resistance and moving averages, we could see another revisit of the $2,600 support zone. On the other hand, a clean breakout above $3,500 would flip the mid-term structure bullish and target the next supply zone around $4,000.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, the price action has developed a symmetrical triangle, with clear higher lows and lower highs converging around the $3,000 zone. This shows a balance of power between buyers and sellers, but also signals a likely breakout move in the coming days. The base of the triangle sits around $2,900, while the upper trendline caps the price just under $3,300.

The asset is currently retesting the triangle support after a small pullback. If buyers defend this level, we might see another attempt at the upper range. However, a breakdown from the lower trendline could trigger a sell-off back into the $2,600–$2,500 support band. The RSI on this timeframe is also cooling off from overbought levels and has dropped below 50 once more, which may give sellers short-term momentum if support breaks.

Sentiment Analysis

Looking at the Ethereum open interest chart across all exchanges, we can see that OI remains around $18B, although down from its Q3 2025 peak. This suggests that traders are still actively participating in the market, but without signs of overwhelming leverage. The recent price rebound from December lows did not trigger a surge in OI, which could be seen as healthy, as there will be less likelihood of forced liquidations if volatility returns.

The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. ETH has managed to avoid the kind of long squeeze seen in some other altcoins. That said, with BTC dominance on the rise and attention shifting back to ETF narratives, Ethereum might lag in the short term unless it can break key resistance levels on strong volume.

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