Betting Markets Predict 75% Chance Supreme Court Blocks Trump Tariffs

TLDR

• US tariff documentation expanded to 4,500+ pages in 2026, adding 100 pages from last year
• Trading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket put Supreme Court approval odds at 25-27% for Trump tariffs
• Home Depot and Costco shares gained 5-6% this year as investors expect tariff rollback
• Import companies must track 17 tariff categories compared to 3 in 2017
• Refund procedures remain undefined even if Supreme Court rules against tariff authority

The US tariff framework has expanded dramatically since 2017. The 2026 Harmonized Tariff Schedule now spans more than 4,500 pages. This marks a 100-page increase from 2025 and an 800-page expansion since Trump first entered office.

This reference document guides importers on government fees for thousands of products. Each item receives a unique statistical code and corresponding rate. The growing size reflects the increased regulatory burden on businesses.

Research from the Cato Institute shows companies now manage 17 separate tariff categories on major imports. This number stood at just three in 2017. Scott Lincicome from the organization described the system as having gone from “relatively easy to mind-numbingly difficult.”

The majority of new regulations appear in Chapter 99 of the tariff schedule. This section starts on page 3,320 and addresses temporary trade modifications. These entries stem from executive orders issued throughout the past year.

Yale Budget Lab data shows consumers face an average 16.8% tariff rate. Beyond direct costs, businesses report substantial administrative expenses from compliance requirements. These indirect costs may equal or exceed the tariffs themselves.

Investor Sentiment Shifts

The Supreme Court could announce its decision on Trump’s tariff authority this Friday. Prediction markets indicate low confidence in the administration’s position. Kalshi traders assign 27% probability to tariffs being upheld. Polymarket shows 25% odds.

Stock movements mirror these predictions. Home Depot shares rose 5% since January 1. Costco stock climbed 6% over the same timeframe.

The retail sector ETF tracking major chains gained nearly 6% in early 2026. The broader S&P 500 index increased only 1% during this period. This outperformance suggests strong investor expectations for tariff removal.

Food and beverage manufacturers also stand to benefit from tariff elimination. Current policies raised costs for aluminum and other raw materials. Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Mondelez face higher input expenses under existing rules.

Questions About Implementation

Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research highlights unresolved implementation issues. A Supreme Court ruling against tariffs may not address refund mechanisms. Questions remain about which companies qualify for reimbursement and payment timelines.

Louis Navellier from Navellier & Associates warns that defeating the tariffs may not end them permanently. The administration claims alternative legal pathways exist to maintain import fees. This creates continued uncertainty for supply chain planning.

Trading volume on prediction markets remains modest for this topic. Kalshi recorded $2.3 million in bets while Polymarket saw $2 million. These figures pale compared to $150 million wagered on Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair selection.

A surprise Supreme Court decision upholding tariffs would likely trigger sharp declines in consumer stocks. Current prices reflect widespread expectations of a ruling against the administration. Retailers have positioned themselves for tariff relief.

The complexity affects customs operations at ports nationwide. Staff must process detailed documentation for each shipment category. This workload increased substantially as tariff categories multiplied.

Import businesses track specific codes for items ranging from auto parts to construction equipment. Matching products to proper classifications requires specialized knowledge. The expanded system demands more resources from trade compliance departments.

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