U.S. Jobs Report Comes In Below Expectations, Bitcoin Reacts

The U.S. December jobs report has shown mixed signs regarding the current situation in the labor market, with the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate coming in below expectations. Bitcoin has climbed on the back of the data release, though traders have now increased their bets that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting.

U.S. December Jobs Report Comes In Below Expectations, Bitcoin Reacts

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that total nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, well below estimates above 60,000 and the revised figure of 56,000 in November. The October data was also revised down from -105,000 to -173,000. The payroll gains in 2025 averaged 49,000 per month, well below the 168,000 in 2024.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below estimates of 4.5% and the revised figure of 4.5% for November. The nonfarm payrolls data again suggests that the U.S. market is cooling, which is a positive for the crypto market, as it strengthens the case for more rate cuts.

However, the unemployment rate paints a different picture, hinting at a potential rebound in the labor market. The jobs report follows yesterday’s release of the initial jobless claims, which also hinted at a rebound in the labor market.

It is worth noting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested last year that the Fed’s focus was on the unemployment rate when determining the current state of the labor market. As such, the unemployment rate supports the case for the Fed to hold interest rates steady for now.

The Bitcoin price had quickly reacted following the release of the U.S. jobs report. The flagship crypto had climbed to as high as $90,700 on the back of the data release, but BTC is still down on the day, having dropped from an intraday high above $91,000.

Odds Of Fed Rates Remaining Unchanged Rise

The odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at the January FOMC meeting have risen to 95%, according to CME FedWatch data. Meanwhile, there is only a 5% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (bps).

Crypto traders are also betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged amid the release of the jobs report. Polymarket data shows a 96.2% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged following the meeting.

These crypto traders also expect the Fed to make only two 25 bps cuts this year, with the first cut expected to happen by the June FOMC meeting. There is currently a 76% chance that the Fed will lower rates by that meeting, according to Polymarket data.