Crypto Market Faces Volatility as US Court and Unemployment Data Loom

TLDR

• The US Supreme Court will announce its ruling on tariffs, potentially impacting market sentiment.
• Experts predict a 76% chance that the tariffs could be ruled illegal, possibly reversing $600 billion collected.
• The US unemployment data will be released, with expectations of a slight decrease to 4.5%.
• Rising unemployment could strengthen recession fears, while falling unemployment might reduce rate cut expectations.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry, worth over $2.2 billion, is set to add volatility to the crypto market.

The crypto market is on the brink of increased volatility as investors brace for two key U.S. events today. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s tariffs and the release of unemployment data are expected to impact the market significantly. With the total crypto market cap hovering around $3.11 trillion, this could mark a turning point in short-term price movements.

Crypto Market Braces for Supreme Court Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court will announce its ruling on President Trump’s tariffs at 10:00 am ET. In April, Trump imposed tariffs between 10% and 50% on a range of goods, calling it a “Liberation Day” initiative. Experts predict a 76% chance that the Court will rule the tariffs illegal, potentially reversing some of the $600 billion already collected by the government.

If the tariffs are declared illegal, it could prompt a shift in market sentiment. Investors may grow cautious, particularly in sectors like crypto, which has benefited from the perceived stability of the tariffs. Market participants will be watching closely, as a ruling against the tariffs could lead to sudden changes in the financial landscape.

Later today, the U.S. will release its unemployment data at 8:30 am ET, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market. Analysts expect a decrease in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.6%, signaling a slightly healthier job market. However, if unemployment rises, fears of a recession could strengthen, leading to greater market volatility.

The data will be critical for interest rate expectations. A drop in unemployment could dampen hopes for a January rate cut, with the chance already sitting at 13%. On the other hand, weaker employment data could renew speculation about a rate cut, influencing decisions in the crypto market.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Adds More Volatility

Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry will further amplify volatility in the crypto market today. More than $2.2 billion in options will expire at 8:00 UTC, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.89 billion of that total. As Bitcoin’s current price hovers around $90,975, the options market is close to the $90,000 max pain level, intensifying the pressure on the market.

Ethereum is also set for volatility, with about $396 million in options expiring today. Ethereum is currently trading near $3,117, just above the $3,100 max pain level. This expiration could trigger significant short-term price movements, adding another layer of uncertainty for crypto traders as they navigate these market events.

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