Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: China H200 Chip Orders Paused Despite $54B Backlog

TLDR

• Nvidia stock has fallen 1.8% over the past month despite AI announcements at CES, trading around $184.98
• Analysts report strong demand across all customer segments, with orders for over 2 million H200 chips worth approximately $54 billion
• Chinese authorities have asked some tech companies to pause H200 chip orders while deciding on domestic chip purchases
• Nvidia’s new Rubin chip architecture launching in 2026 will require infrastructure upgrades, benefiting the company beyond GPU sales
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing earnings on Thursday could provide insight into the AI chip market’s health

Nvidia shares are stuck in neutral despite strong underlying demand signals. The stock traded at $184.98 in after-hours Friday, essentially flat for the day.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Over the past month, shares have dipped 1.8%. A series of robotics and autonomous-driving announcements at CES didn’t move the needle for investors.

But analysts see a different story beneath the surface. Truist Securities analyst William Stein noted that company meetings at CES painted a picture of robust AI-related demand. Management teams emphasized strong customer spending across hyperscalers, neoclouds, sovereign entities, and China.

The China situation presents both opportunity and uncertainty. CEO Jensen Huang called demand for the H200 chip “very high” at CES. He doesn’t expect issues from the Chinese government.

Nvidia already has orders for more than 2 million H200 chips. At $27,000 per chip, that represents roughly $54 billion in potential revenue.

China Creates Near-Term Uncertainty

However, Beijing authorities have asked some technology companies to hit pause on their orders. The government wants to determine how many domestically produced chips should be purchased alongside Nvidia’s hardware, according to Reuters.

This pause comes even though Nvidia received clearance to resume China sales in 2026. The company had been shut out of the Chinese market since April 2025. While Nvidia faces export taxes, analysts view the Chinese market as too large to ignore.

The timing matters because China represents a market as large as the United States for AI chips. Any resolution of the order pause could provide the catalyst Nvidia shares need to break out of their recent doldrums.

New Architecture Drives Future Growth

Wall Street expects Nvidia to deliver 50% revenue growth in 2026. That projection is based on more than just existing product lines.

The company is launching its Rubin chip architecture in 2026. This new design brings performance improvements but also requires infrastructure changes. Rubin utilizes 800-volt power systems, different from current setups.

Nvidia sells many components needed for this transition. The company will benefit from both the chip sales and the supporting infrastructure upgrades. Even its current Blackwell chips are completely sold out, showing continued strong demand for Nvidia’s products.

Nvidia trades at 47 times trailing earnings. That might seem high until you consider the company posted 62% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarter. Using forward earnings, the multiple drops to around 34 times projected 2026 earnings.

Compared to big tech peers, Nvidia carries a premium valuation. But it also delivers much faster growth rates than most competitors. The company sits at a $4.6 trillion market cap, making it the world’s largest company.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings Thursday. As Nvidia’s key supplier, TSMC’s results could provide additional market insights. The company already reported strong quarterly sales, setting positive expectations.

Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market. Analysts project the AI computing market will expand through at least 2030. With data center construction continuing at a rapid pace, Nvidia remains a primary beneficiary of this spending wave.

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