MicroStrategy Stock at $149 Holds, but Bitcoin Buy Does Not Clear Risk

Key Insights:

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price held near the $149 level after the company made its largest Bitcoin purchase, helping prevent an immediate breakdown.
• The stock is still trading below short-term trend levels, which means selling pressure has not fully eased yet.
• Michael Saylor says valuation should be based on what the company builds over time, not only how closely the stock tracks Bitcoin value.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price is holding near the $149 level after a very large Bitcoin purchase by the company. Over the past few months, the stock has fallen hard. From its highs, the price dropped more than 50%. Because of that long fall, traders are now watching closely to see if this support level can hold.

Last week, the company made its biggest Bitcoin purchase since July 2025. It bought 13,627 Bitcoin for about $1.25 billion. The average price paid was close to $91,500 per Bitcoin.

This buying helped slow down selling pressure in the stock. It did not create a strong rally, but it stopped the price from breaking down right away. But the risk might still be around!

MicroStrategy Stock Faces Downtrend Pressure Despite Bitcoin Buying

Even after the large Bitcoin purchase, the bigger trend has not changed yet.

MicroStrategy stock price is still trading below its key moving averages. A moving average is just a line that shows the average price over a certain number of days. Traders use it to understand trend direction.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock lost its 20-day moving average back in early October. Since then, it has not been able to move back above it. That loss was important. It marked the start of a long decline that wiped out more than half of the stock’s value.

This tells traders something simple. Selling pressure has been stronger than buying pressure for many weeks.

One big Bitcoin purchase does not erase that history right away. It can slow the fall, but it does not automatically reverse the trend.

That is why traders are still cautious. They see support holding, but they do not see clear strength yet.

Why the $149 Level Matters So Much for MSTR Stock?

The $149 area is now the most important level on the MicroStrategy stock price chart. It lines up with a key Fibonacci support zone. Fibonacci levels are price areas where markets often pause or react. Many traders watch them, which makes them matter more.

As long as the MSTR stock price stays above $149, the stock can move sideways and rest. That kind of movement allows pressure to cool down. It also gives buyers time to rebuild confidence.

If $149 breaks, the downside opens up quickly. The next major support sits near $118. Below that, another support waits near $94. From $149, that would mean roughly an 8% drop at first, with deeper losses possible if selling accelerates.

On the upside, the picture is very different. For buyers to truly regain control, the stock needs to move back above $198. That level marks a major resistance zone. Until that happens, rallies are likely to remain short and fragile. But besides the prices, the valuation concerns also remain.

MicroStrategy Valuation and the mNAV Debate

MicroStrategy is often valued using a simple metric called mNAV. This stands for multiple of net asset value. In very simple terms, it compares the company’s stock price to the value of the Bitcoin it owns.

If mNAV is close to one, it means the stock price is close to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Right now, MicroStrategy’s mNAV sits near 1.05.

That means the stock is trading only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin. The company holds about 687,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $62 billion, along with some cash.

It also has debt, but that debt is already included in how the market values the company.

Some investors believe mNAV must always remain above 1. Michael Saylor strongly disagrees with the fixation. In a recent interview with Danny Knowles, he said:

His point is simple. MicroStrategy is not just holding Bitcoin and waiting. It is building a business around Bitcoin. Because mNAV is already close to one, much of the valuation reset may already be done.

That helps explain why the MicroStrategy stock price is trying to hold support instead of breaking down sharply.

This argument matters because it explains why the stock often trades differently from Bitcoin itself. Investors are not only buying Bitcoin exposure. They are also betting on a long-term business model.

For now, the MicroStrategy stock is stuck between belief and doubt. The Bitcoin purchase added confidence, but the chart still looks weak.

If $149 holds, the stock can stay stable and wait. If it breaks, downside risk increases fast. A move above $198 is needed to change the MSTR stock price story in a meaningful way.