Trading Moments: Gold and silver move in tandem with A-shares; BTC rises from 94,500 to 98,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Despite the latest US core inflation data showing signs of cooling, falling to a four-year low of 2.6%, this has not changed the market's widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June. Fed officials seem to need more evidence of a weakening labor market or a continued easing of price pressures before considering adjusting interest rate policy, causing the initial optimism from the inflation data to quickly fade, putting pressure on US stocks and strengthening the dollar.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, precious metals are playing an increasingly prominent role as a "hedging tool against institutional risks." Spot gold briefly hit a record high of $4,639, while silver was even stronger, touching the $91 mark for the first time. Its total market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion, exceeding Nvidia to become the world's second-largest asset. Market analysts believe this surge is largely a repricing of the uncertain outlook for monetary policy, the increasing dominance of fiscal policy, and geopolitical risks. Many institutions have reacted positively. ANZ predicts gold prices will break $5,000 in the second half of 2026, while Citigroup has raised its three-month target prices to $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver. VanEck analysts have even used models to extrapolate that, under the assumption of a global return to the gold standard, the "real" price of gold will far exceed current levels.

The A-share market experienced its first decline after a 17-day winning streak since January 13th, followed by a dramatic day on January 14th. The morning session continued its strong performance, with all three major indices opening higher. The ChiNext index rose by over 2% at one point, and the STAR Market 50 index surged by over 4%. The market saw a broad-based rally, with over 4,700 stocks rising and hundreds hitting their daily limit. AI applications, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace sectors performed particularly well. However, the afternoon saw a sudden shift. A notice from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges raising the minimum margin requirement for margin financing from 80% to 100% triggered a brief market plunge, causing all three major indices to briefly turn negative and a sharp decrease in the number of rising stocks. This move aims to reduce market leverage through counter-cyclical adjustments, protecting investors and promoting long-term stability.

Following the release of the CPI data, Bitcoin successfully broke through several key resistance levels, including $92,000 and $94,000, briefly touching around $96,500. Michaël van de Poppe and Ali Charts both believe a bull market has begun. Van de Poppe points out that BTC has effectively stabilized above the 21-day moving average and predicts it will challenge $100,000 next week. Ali Charts predicts that a break above the $94,555 resistance level will target $105,921. Furthermore, Ardi, Sykodelic, and Astronomer unanimously consider $94,500 a crucial support level for the bulls. Ardi emphasizes that as long as this support holds, the market will sweep through the $96,500-$97,200 price range and aim for $100,000. Astronomer further points out that the spot discount in the $80,000-$85,000 range has turned into a premium, a strong bullish signal, with subsequent targets as high as $112,000 and a new all-time high.

Cautious voices should not be ignored either. Murphy pointed out through on-chain data analysis that the market is in a weak balance of "emotional recovery + low selling pressure" but "insufficient demand". $98,000 is the real "bull-bear dividing line" as the cost line for short-term holders. Strong intervention from US funds is required to break through it. Tradermayne believes there is a 70% probability of forming a secondary high. Unless it stabilizes above $105,000, there is still a risk of a bear market. CrypNuevo and CJ are worried that this is just a liquidity grab targeting the 1W 50EMA or the inefficient area of $97,000. They are wary of a bull trap and a pullback.

Ethereum, after finding support at a key level, is attempting to break through and hold above $3,300, but has failed multiple times over the past two months. Analyst Man of Bitcoin points out that a successful break above $3,300 would confirm the validity of its bullish roadmap. Investors like Jelle and Max suggest that with the Russell 2000 index hitting new highs, the market environment is favorable for ETH's catch-up rally, and if it can hold key support, $4,000 will be the next core target. Derivatives data shows that Ethereum's open interest is recovering, while leverage is declining. This divergence usually indicates a healthier market positioning structure and that spot buying is driving the recovery. Although it is currently hampered by L2 divergence and decreased DApp activity, Ethereum is expected to see a catch-up rally after Bitcoin stabilizes.

As the market rebounded, Solana garnered significant attention due to the "cup and handle" pattern forming on its daily chart. Analysts believe its price structure suggests a potential breakout towards the $180-$190 target, and the continued net inflows into the spot Solana ETF in 2026 have strengthened bullish sentiment. Inscription tokens such as ORDI and SATS also saw gains exceeding 20%. The Meme coin sector rebounded strongly, with tokens like PEPE, WIF, and BONK experiencing significant increases. In the privacy coin sector, Monero (XMR) broke through the $700 mark, driving similar tokens like DASH up by over 30%. Furthermore, the performance of Meme, listed on Binance Alpha, was mixed. The "dark horse" Meme's market capitalization surged to $15 million before falling back to $11.6 million, with its gains narrowing to 500%. Meanwhile, Meme itself declined, its market capitalization shrinking to $8 million, a 35% drop in 24 hours. In contrast, "Binance Life" emerged as the biggest winner, its market capitalization reaching a record high of $289 million. The top-performing on-chain coin saw a floating profit exceeding $2.63 million, a return of 1543 times. Some analysts believe that "Binance Life" may become a bellwether for altcoin sentiment on the Binance platform. (*Note: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 14)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $94,942 (year-to-date +8.8%), daily spot trading volume $68.7 billion

• Ethereum: $3,334 (year-to-date +12.1%), daily spot trading volume $36.11 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: IP, XRP, BTC, ETH, AXS

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 51.20% / 48.80%

• Sector Performance: The crypto market saw broad gains, with NFT and GameFi sectors leading the way with increases exceeding 8%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 104,179 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $601 million. This included $262 million in BTC liquidations, $171 million in ETH liquidations, and $30.86 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 13)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$754 million, none of the twelve ETFs saw net outflows.

• Ethereum ETF: +$130 million, none of the nine ETFs saw net outflows.

• XRP ETF: +12.98 million USD

• SOL ETF: +$5.91 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Tom Lee urged BitMine shareholders to approve a proposal to increase the authorized number of shares from 500 million to 50 billion by January 14.

• The BSC mainnet Fermi hard fork will be upgraded on January 14, 2026.

• Binance will list FOGO spot on January 15th and tag it with a seed label.

• MANTRA: All ERC20 versions of OM will be deprecated on January 15th. Please migrate as soon as possible.

• Aster: Phase 3 airdrops are now available to claim and will close on January 15, 2026.

• The U.S. Supreme Court has postponed its ruling on the Trump tariff case; the next ruling is scheduled for January 14.

• The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions (January 15, 03:00).

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Dash (up 32.7%), Story (up 30.7%), Pepe (up 13.5%), Optimism (up 12.7%), and Internet Computer (up 12.3%).

5. Hot News

• In the past six months, corporate crypto treasuries have net increased their holdings by approximately 260,000 BTC, which is three times the Bitcoin mining output during the same period.

• The OpenSea Foundation is preparing for TGE and will consider historical trading volume and Treasures data.

• The top-ranked address on the "Binance Life" leaderboard has unrealized profits exceeding $2.63 million, representing a return of over 154,341.1%.

• DN tokens have plummeted by over 80% in the past 24 hours. DeepNode responded that it is "working with market makers to resolve liquidity issues."

• Spot silver is approaching the $90 mark, setting a new record high.

• Bitmine has staked another 94,400 ETH, worth $314 million.

• Zama will launch its token sale through CoinList and its own auction app, with a starting price of $55 million for FDV.

• SharpLink staking yielded 500 ETH last week, bringing its total staking yield to over 11,000 ETH.

• Spot gold has climbed above $4,620 per ounce, while spot silver has risen more than 3.00% intraday.

• The US December unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year.

• "On-chain part-time stock trader" shorts on-chain gold, holding $13 million.