Someone just bet $100k on Polymarket that Trump will buy Greenland

A single Polymarket trader has placed a $100,000 wager on the unlikely outcome that U.S. President Donald Trump will acquire Greenland before the end of 2026. 

If the bet pays out, the trader stands to collect roughly $586,000, implying a strong conviction in a scenario most governments involved have publicly dismissed.

Data from the market shows that the bet was made at an implied probability of about 16%, reflecting relatively low expectations but offering an asymmetric payoff. Since then, the market price has climbed, with Polymarket now assigning an 18% chance to the outcome.

Rising odds of Greenland acquisition

Notably, for much of late December, the market traded in a narrow range, with probabilities hovering in the mid-single digits to low teens, suggesting that most participants viewed the idea of a Greenland acquisition as political noise rather than a realistic policy path.

That changed in early January, when data shows a sharp upward break followed by higher highs and sustained consolidation near the 15–18% range. This pattern points to growing confidence among traders that the risk, while still low, is no longer negligible.

The trader behind the bet, operating under the name MaxVerstap, joined Polymarket in mid-2025 and has a relatively limited trading history. According to the profile snapshot, the account has made 18 predictions in total and holds positions valued at just over $103,000, with all-time profits slightly above $6,000. 

The timing of the trade has sparked questions over whether it reflects insider insight or pure speculation.

It follows heightened geopolitical uncertainty after recent U.S. actions abroad, notably the operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, which reshaped perceptions of how far Washington may go to pursue strategic goals. 

That shift appears to be mirrored in the recent uptick in Greenland market odds. At the same time, Greenland’s government and Denmark have firmly rejected any sale or transfer of sovereignty, and no formal diplomatic process exists to support an acquisition.

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