Monero has been on a powerful run. The XMR price is up nearly 56% over the past seven days, and even after cooling, it remains up about 2.7% in the last 24 hours. Price is sitting just 1–2% below its all-time high near $721.
Zooming out, the move looks even stronger. Over the past three months, Monero has been up around 120%. The trend is clearly up, but the key question now is simple. Is there a pause coming before another all-time high push, or is gravity starting to matter again?
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XMR Price Defies Gravity, But Big Money Capital Pauses
On the 12-hour chart, Monero’s rally looks aggressive and clean. XMR has printed a long series of strong green candles, driving the price straight into all-time high territory. This is what price strength looks like when sellers struggle to slow momentum.
But price is only one side of the story. The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, adds an important layer. CMF tracks whether large money is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. Rising CMF suggests big capital is actively buying. Flat or falling CMF suggests caution.
Right now, CMF is not rising as aggressively as the price, if we take the early November to January 12 phase into account. It is hovering below the 0.38 level, which acts as a clear line in the sand. This does not mean large players are selling. It means they are not chasing. When CMF flatlines during a sharp rally, it often signals that big money is waiting for a better entry or clearer confirmation.
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That creates a key tension: price is beating gravity, but large capital is observing rather than accelerating. As long as CMF holds near the horizontal trendline and does not turn sharply lower, the uptrend remains intact. But for the rally to extend cleanly, CMF likely needs to break above 0.38 and show renewed inflows.
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Sentiment Gives In to Gravity as Buying Pressure Cools
While the XMR price keeps pushing higher, one internal metric has clearly cooled. Monero’s positive sentiment score has dropped sharply, falling from around 102 to near 29, around 72% in roughly 24 hours. Positive sentiment measures how optimistic market participants are across social and behavioral data. A sharp drop shows excitement fading.
History makes this worth watching. On November 9, positive sentiment made a local peak near 62. Monero’s price peaked around $440 at the same time. Over the next two weeks, sentiment slid to roughly 15, and XMR followed with a drop to about $324. That move was a 26% decline.
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The current situation is different, but the warning is familiar. Today’s sentiment drop is fast, but it has not formed a lower low yet. Risk increases only if sentiment falls below 14, and especially if it breaks under 11. For now, this looks more like cooling than collapse.
Spot exchange data supports that view. On January 13, around $5.77 million worth of XMR moved off exchanges, a sign of strong buying pressure. By January 14, that number fell to roughly $751,000, an 87% drop. This suggests buyers stepped back as sentiment cooled. Selling pressure has not surged, but demand has clearly slowed.
XMR Buying Slows Down: CoinglassIn simple terms, optimism cooled, and buyers paused.
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$880 Wins or Gravity: XMR Price Levels Decide
With price strong but internal signals mixed, key levels matter more than ever. The first level to watch is the $721 all-time high zone. A clean reclaim and hold above this area would signal that buyers are still in control.
If CMF turns higher, sentiment stabilizes, and spot outflows increase again, the next technical target sits near $880. From current levels, that would be another 25% upside. In that scenario, even four-digit price talk stops sounding unrealistic.
XMR Price Analysis: TradingViewThe risk scenario is equally clear. If CMF rolls over instead of breaking higher, sentiment slips below 14, and spot buying continues to fade, gravity starts to pull harder. In that case, $590 becomes the key line in the sand for the Monero price. Holding above $590 keeps the broader uptrend intact and could lead to consolidation. A break below it would raise the risk of a deeper correction, similar in scale to past pullbacks.
For now, Monero is still winning. Price is strong, structure is intact, and sellers remain controlled. But gravity is no longer absent. Whether XMR reaches $880 next depends on one thing. Will capital and conviction return?
Source: https://beincrypto.com/xmr-price-analysis-880-sentiment-warning/
