Netflix (NFLX) Stock: Analysts Target 44% Upside Before Earnings Tuesday

TLDR

• Netflix reports Q4 earnings January 20 with Wall Street expecting $0.55 EPS (up 28%) and $11.97 billion revenue (up 16.7%)
• Stock down 28% since October after missing Q3 operating margin targets and reporting $619 million Brazilian tax charge
• Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition bid creates uncertainty as Paramount Skydance makes competing $30/share hostile offer
• Analysts maintain Moderate Buy rating with $127.23 average price target showing 44.5% potential upside
• Focus shifts to operating margins, advertising growth, and full-year 2026 guidance following Q3’s margin disappointment

Netflix prepares to face investors on January 20 with its fourth-quarter earnings report. The streaming giant’s stock has cratered 28% since October, creating an unusual buying opportunity ahead of results.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

Wall Street projects earnings per share of $0.55, representing 28% year-over-year growth. Revenue estimates land at $11.97 billion, up 16.7%. The company has exceeded analyst expectations in six of the past eight quarters, though recent performance raised red flags.

The October earnings report showed solid top-line numbers but missed badly on operating margins. Netflix delivered 28.2% operating margin versus the 31.5% estimate. A $619 million Brazilian tax settlement didn’t help matters. That combination triggered the selloff that continues today.

But margins aren’t the only concern. Netflix’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery assets has turned messy. Paramount Skydance jumped in with a $30 per share hostile takeover bid for all of WBD. Legal fights and competing offers have stalled any progress, leaving investors frustrated.

Analyst Views Split on Near-Term Outlook

Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese cut her price target from $140 to $115 while keeping a Buy rating. She sees massive potential in Netflix’s advertising business through improved targeting, more partnerships, and shopping integrations. Those features should accelerate ad revenue growth over the next few years.

The acquisition debate divides Wall Street. Some analysts view it as defensive positioning to protect market share. Others argue Apple would benefit more from Warner Bros. content to supplement Apple TV’s limited library.

Margins and Ad Revenue Take Priority

Fourth-quarter guidance points to 23.9% operating margin and full-year 2025 margin of 29.3%. Those figures will face intense scrutiny after last quarter’s miss. Revenue guidance sits at $11.9 billion for Q4 and $45.1 billion for full-year 2025.

Investors want details on advertising revenue momentum. The ad business represents critical growth as U.S. subscriber additions slow. Management may announce subscription price increases to counter domestic weakness and boost top-line growth.

International markets continue driving subscriber gains. Updates on user engagement, content pipeline, and regional performance will matter. The company’s ability to maintain pricing power in competitive markets remains essential.

TipRanks data shows 26 Buy ratings, nine Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The $127.23 consensus price target suggests 44.5% upside from current levels. Five analysts reconfirmed Buy ratings before the report, while two maintained Hold positions.

Netflix trades at historically cheap valuations compared to recent years. The stock’s decline created entry points for long-term investors betting on streaming dominance and advertising growth. The company reports results after Tuesday’s market close.

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