Dogecoin Signals Trend Reversal, Eyes $0.16 Breakout

Dogecoin is recovering from a compression zone. The compression zone was broken with a strong upside reaction weeks after market participation improved. Traders are watching to see if buyers can defend current support levels to extend the recovery towards $0.16.

Compression Breakout

DOGE recently bounced sharply off the $0.12 region, which served as the floor of the compression zone. This rebound represented the most significant upside response by Dogecoin in weeks.

Since the bounce back, the price has stayed above short-term support without fully retracing the breakout. These types of structures often indicate accumulation and not distribution during the initial phases of recovery.

According to Gain Muse analysis, the rebound came from a long-time compression zone. Such formations usually precede directional expansion when volatility returns to the markets.

Gain Muse notes that the price action following the breakout remains constructive. This suggests that buyers are gradually building positions instead of pursuing uptick movement.

Source: X

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Trend Transition

From a moving average perspective, DOGE is trading close to its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA). Holding above the 20-period EMA usually indicates control over short-term momentum by buyers.

The 200-period exponential moving average is slightly higher than the 20-period and is currently in the $0.14 region. This level serves as a key trend filter between recovery phases and wider downward trend phases. A sustained move above the 200-period EMA will provide further confirmation of the trend shift to the upper side.

EMAs. Source: TradingView

Support For The Early Reversal Narrative

Momentum indicators are currently indicating that the early recovery scenario is still valid. Dogecoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is again near the mid-point, which confirms that selling pressure is diminishing.

It appears as if the previous bearish momentum is waning, and no overbought conditions have formed. This supports the notion that the recent price movement is characteristic of an early trend reversal, rather than indicative of a final exhaustion phase.

Meanwhile, the MACD is flattening after bearing a prolonged bearish cycle. Contraction of the histogram and narrowing of signal lines usually occur before directional resolution.

When combined with improvement in structure, these signals suggest that momentum may increase if support holds. Volume has also returned to stable levels following the rebound, which suggests there is continuous participation.

MACD and RSI. Source: TradingView

$0.16 Remains The Key Uptick Level

Since the setup is so widespread, it may be viewed as an example of a compression breakout that was followed by a controlled consolidation. Such patterns can occur just before the beginning of a continuation move in a recovery phase.

As long as buying continues to control the rising support, Dogecoin will likely try to break through to $0.16. This price represents past resistance and obvious liquidity areas. Currently, all signs point to cautiously optimistic positioning rather than aggressive ones.

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