Fed transcripts show Powell pushed hard in September 2020 to lock in near-zero rates with strict conditions

Federal Reserve transcripts released Friday lay out how Powell drove a major policy shift during the worst stretch of the Covid-19 crisis.

The records cover closed-door debates from 2020 and show how the Fed chair pushed hard for clear promises on interest rates, even as several officials warned the move could box the central bank in later. Those warnings stayed mostly private at the time.

The September 2020 meeting took place six months into the pandemic, with rates already pinned near zero since March. Powell argued the moment demanded blunt guidance.

He wanted the Fed to spell out exactly what had to happen before rates could rise again. The goal was to support a recovery he believed would take years, not months. Some policymakers objected. Most fell in line.

Powell forces rate guidance through internal resistance

The transcripts show Powell pressing for language that tied rate hikes to two conditions. One was maximum employment. The other was inflation reaching 2 percent and moving above that level for a period of time. That language went into the public statement after the meeting.

At the time, inflation sat at 1.3 percent using the Fed’s preferred gauge. The median forecast showed inflation not hitting 2 percent until 2023. That forecast proved wrong. Inflation surged the next year and peaked at 7.2 percent in mid-2022. Still, many officials, including Powell, described the jump as transitory and waited to react.

Two policymakers dissented in September 2020. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan opposed locking in near-zero rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wanted an even stronger commitment. Others shared Kaplan’s concern but did not vote. Those included Eric Rosengren in Boston, Tom Barkin in Richmond, and Raphael Bostic in Atlanta.

Voting members Patrick Harker from Philadelphia and Loretta Mester from Cleveland also raised concerns. Mester called the new liftoff rules very significant. She said she would have preferred more discussion before making such a change. She still supported the final decision.

Powell rejected waiting. He told colleagues the expansion was underway and policy messaging needed to support the long path back. He said delays could damage the Fed’s credibility after holding steady for six months.

Powell said weaker guidance would repeat eight years of old Fed behavior

The September debate followed a major policy overhaul announced a month earlier. The Fed changed how it handled inflation and jobs.

Officials moved away from raising rates early just because unemployment fell. That old playbook had failed for years, as low joblessness did not spark inflation.

The transcripts show Powell worried that markets and the public did not believe the Fed would stick to the new framework. He warned that weak guidance would sound like the same reaction function used for eight years. He pushed for strong wording to show the shift was real.

Five years later, those conversations became public. The Fed releases edited minutes three weeks after each meeting, but full transcripts come out only after five years. Critics now argue that the firm guidance slowed the Fed’s response when inflation took off.

In November 2022, after rate hikes were already underway, Powell publicly acknowledged regret. Speaking at the Brookings Institution, he said the guidance tying liftoff to both jobs and inflation was the one decision he would not repeat. He said it was not tied directly to the inflation surge, but still would not do it again.

The transcripts also show Powell spotting COVID risks early. On March 2, 2020, before the virus hit the U.S. hard, he described rising concern after a G‑20 meeting in Riyadh. He said the virus was likely to spread worldwide.

He told officials markets needed a clear signal that central banks understood the threat and would act fast to prevent tighter financial conditions. That day, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point.

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