Fitch affirms Saudi rating on strong fiscal buffers

• Reforms support economic diversification
• But cost to balance sheets is meaningful
• Current-account deficit to widen

Global ratings agency Fitch has affirmed Saudi Arabia’s credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal and external balance sheets and sizeable fiscal buffers.

Deep and broad social and economic reforms implemented under Vision 2030 are supporting economic diversification, albeit at a meaningful cost to balance sheets, Fitch said in a new report.

Foreign reserves are projected at 11.6 months of current external payments this year, well above the peer median of 1.9 months.

Fitch expects the current-account deficit to widen to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2026, from an estimated 3 percent in 2025, driven by higher import costs amid increased domestic spending and a modest rise in oil export receipts.

The ratings agency forecasts Brent crude to average $63 per barrel in 2026 and 2027. 

The deficit should narrow slightly in 2027 as revenues benefit from higher oil export volumes, new export facilities coming on stream and higher tourism inflows. 

In December, the government said it expected the budget deficit to narrow in 2026 as it scales back spending amid weaker oil revenue and foreign investment.

Expenditure is projected at SAR1.31 trillion ($349 billion) in 2026, lower than an estimated SAR1.34 trillion last year. Revenue is forecast at SAR1.15 trillion, up slightly on the estimated SAR1.09 trillion for 2025.

Economic growth is projected at 4.8 percent in 2026, following an estimated 4.6 percent in 2025, supported by higher oil production as Opec-related output increases over 2025.

Further reading:

• Saudi Arabia’s policy trilemma: Oil, debt and deficits in 2026
• Saudi Arabia to introduce bilingual real-estate documents
• IMF supports Saudi spending despite budget deficit

Growth will ease in 2027, in line with a slower expansion of oil production, Fitch said.

Project recalibration, lower government capital expenditure and tighter liquidity will also pose challenges to non-oil growth, it said.

Earlier this month, Riyadh said the order book for its first international bond of 2026 reached $31 billion, reflecting strong demand for its issuances.

AGBI reported also in January that the National Debt Management Center had secured $13 billion through a seven-year syndicated loan to help finance power, water and public utilities projects.