CZ Chinese AMA: My Thoughts on Bitcoin at 200,000, the Supercycle, Memecoin, and Regulation

Source: Little Universe

Edited by: Wu Shuo Blockchain

The content of this article does not constitute any investment or financial advice. Readers are advised to strictly abide by the laws and regulations of their locality.

On January 14th, Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) held a Chinese AMA to engage with the community, delving into future trends in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market, particularly the possibility of a supercycle and investment strategies for the industry. He emphasized the impact of US policies on the market, especially in the intertwining of the stock market and cryptocurrencies. He also shared insights on crypto community building, memecoins, and the trend towards decentralization, as well as the importance of compliance in the crypto industry. Furthermore, CZ expressed optimism about the potential of future prediction markets and AI code generation, while also offering advice to investors, especially novice traders, emphasizing the importance of risk control and a long-term perspective.

This content represents the guest's personal views and does not reflect the views of Wu Shuo. The audio transcription was done by GPT and may contain errors. Please listen to the full podcast on platforms such as Xiaoyuzhou and YouTube.

Are there better methods for user expansion?

CZ: I think it depends on each person's situation. If your circle is deeply involved in academia, business, or education, the methods will differ depending on the circle. I think the best way is for everyone to educate the industry in their own way. If everyone does a little bit, the influence will become wider and wider, and ultimately, the number of users will increase.

Has the supercycle begun, and will 2026 be a new starting point?

CZ: When I talk about a supercycle, I'm referring to the four-year cycle that Bitcoin originally had, which has been very evident historically. If we follow historical cycles, this year might be a bear market, because 2020 and 2021 were bear markets, 2017 was a bull market, and most of the years after that have been bear markets.

Therefore, when I talk about supercycles or super bull markets, I usually mean them on a yearly basis. This year, I think the situation might be different. From a simpler perspective, although Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, this year might be different. The most likely reason is that the policies currently being introduced in the US are very favorable to Bitcoin, and the US president may implement a series of policies this year to improve the stock market performance, given the upcoming midterm elections.

If the US stock market performs better, then the stock market's strength might outweigh the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. I think this is highly probable, but of course, I could be wrong. So don't worry too much about what I'm saying. This is my personal opinion. By the way, South Korea just allowed listed companies to participate in cryptocurrency trading this year, which is a long-term positive trend for the entire industry. My view is that I always tend to see the positive side, so I'm very optimistic about the future.

What is the outlook for the market in 2026?

CZ: I think the prediction market should be a huge sector in the long run, that's my personal opinion. However, it's hard to say exactly how big or small this sector will be at the moment. Some people are spamming it, which might be a bit of an exaggeration.

In the short term, it's difficult to predict who will win and who will lose. The prediction market sector is still very new, currently dominated by projects like Kalshi and Polymarket . Kalshi hasn't really penetrated the cryptocurrency world itself, while Polymarket gained notoriety during the last election but has also experienced some setbacks, such as needing to block US users and repurchase licenses.

These two projects have proven the existence of the market, but many new competitors are likely to emerge—potentially hundreds or even thousands. It remains unclear which format will succeed in each country and which regulatory policies will be most suitable. For example, there are currently very few market makers in the prediction market; basically only one or two traditional market makers are involved, and they are mostly limited to sports events. It may be more difficult to succeed in other types of predictions. The industry is also uncertain about how to address these issues.

Currently, this sector is still in its very early stages , but we have already made significant investments in this area and supported several projects. While there may be some competition among these projects, we support the success of each one.

Will AI become the mainstream trend in the future?

CZ: I think AI will write a lot of code in the future , that's very obvious. And right now, thanks to AI, the speed and quality of code writing have improved significantly.

I heard a statistic yesterday that a traditional financial company wrote about 2 million lines of code over the past seven years, while in the past year, the amount of code written using AI almost reached the same scale. Moreover, the AI-written code wasn't just copy-pasted; it was highly concise and practically useful. Therefore, I believe AI will definitely greatly enhance human productivity and output.

For developers, this is very positive for humanity, as long as we apply this technology properly. Of course, many people have also used AI to write a lot of useless programs, but in every market, 70% to 80% of attempts will fail, while a small number of successful cases will be very successful. Overall, AI will help increase the amount of code, code quality, and our overall output.

Is the meme market operating fairly?

CZ: To be honest, Memecoin and other on-chain projects are inherently decentralized . In a decentralized environment, there will always be some people who are faster than others, and as the industry develops, their efficiency will increase.

Some ordinary retail investors, lacking professional expertise, are less efficient, and this gap will widen over time. Introducing third-party intervention might be beneficial, but it could also lead to centralization. Furthermore, the form of such intervention is difficult to define. People who see my posts about meme coins will then use that information to shape their own content.

Of course, there are some people who specialize in this kind of thing, and they're faster. They might succeed if people follow them, but it's worthless if no one does. Early participants need to take risks and may therefore incur losses. Later participants can choose not to follow if they feel it's unfair. Currently, I believe this issue doesn't require much intervention from me; the community should be allowed to develop naturally.

Furthermore, my tweets will not change because of what others say. I have my freedom in the decentralized world and am not influenced by external factors. I am aware of this situation, but I do not feel I have the ability to interfere.

Truly successful meme coins should have a long-standing historical allusion, like the Doge. New meme coins rarely retain their value over the long term.

You can participate, but you need to realize that this is your own choice. Memecoin is very risky, with a high probability of failure. Although you might become rich overnight, the chances of success are low. Everyone needs to be responsible for their own choices. That's my opinion.

Is there a chance that Bitcoin will reach 200,000?

CZ: Haha, that's a really hard question to answer. The hardest part is timing. I've always been bullish on Bitcoin and think it's basically unstoppable over time. So I believe Bitcoin reaching 200,000 is just a matter of time. But I'm not sure exactly when.

Binance Square's future development and creators' ideas

CZ: I can only share some personal thoughts on this; the specific direction depends on the team. I hope Binance Square can be more interactive. I'm a heavy Twitter user and feel that many social media platforms don't do a good enough job in content filtering and recommendation, especially in how to accurately push interesting content to users who are interested.

TikTok does a good job in this regard, but it's gone a bit too far, leading to addiction and monotony. Many platforms could improve their content filtering and recommendation processes. As for AI content, it looks eye-catching now, but much of it is just a waste of time and lacks substance. I hope social media platforms like Facebook can also improve in this area.

Unlike other platforms, Binance Square's users are almost all KYC verified, making trading and transfers very convenient. In contrast, while platform X claims to have 700 million users, it's unclear whether all of them have completed KYC. Binance supports KYC in over 180 countries, giving us a natural advantage in this area. Therefore, I believe Binance Square has great potential in this regard.

Does community building have potential and prospects?

CZ: This is a simple question. I believe community building is definitely useful, especially in the long run. The definition of community building is very broad, but the key is whether people use what you create. Whether it's a product, a community, or a meme, as long as there are users, it has value. If no one pays attention, then it has no value.

Therefore, I believe that in the long run, community building will definitely have value, and this is a very simple principle.

What are the short-term and long-term expectations for Memecoin?

CZ: My expectation is simple: I hope all sectors become increasingly popular , especially the meme coin sector. In the long run, the most important thing is that these things can be actually used or have followers. So my view on meme coins is simple: I don't reject any sector; in fact, I personally quite enjoy playing with meme coins. However, meme coins are not suitable for me. I usually don't participate in this kind of short-term speculative trading, such as making ten times the profit overnight. For me, it doesn't make much sense, even though many people are interested in meme coins.

As builders, we hope to provide better and smoother tools, especially for meme trading, where system requirements are very high. Whether it's decentralized real-time data capture or other technical requirements, the challenges to the system and product are significant. Therefore, I hope that within our ecosystem, products and systems can be continuously optimized and made more user-friendly. Markets are always cyclical; as our platform and products become more user-friendly, more and more people will naturally use them.

Has the meme market regressed to the level of global casinos?

CZ: This is a rather philosophical and broad question, making it difficult to answer precisely. Markets are cyclical, and it's hard to determine whether we're currently at a high or low point. I think this year might be a supercycle, or it might be a stronger four-year cycle for cryptocurrencies; it's hard to say for sure.

VC projects do indeed have problems, especially since many projects perform exceptionally well at the time of their IPO but quickly fall into a death spiral. Most VC projects are led by venture capital firms, and early-stage investors often meticulously package the projects to make them appear very promising. However, VCs face exit pressures; they are not long-term holders and typically need returns within the fund's lifecycle. Therefore, when these projects go public, there is often strong selling pressure, with retail investors being the primary buyers. This phenomenon also frequently occurs in the traditional IPO market, where IPOs were once for companies to raise funds, but now they are more about VCs exiting.

As for meme coins, the situation isn't entirely the same. Some projects have professional teams behind them who quickly buy and drive up prices. Therefore, it's hard to say which approach is better; it depends on the specific circumstances of each project. My advice is to learn to assess risk and take responsibility for your decisions. No one is forcing you to buy a particular coin; risk management is extremely important and you must be aware of this.

How can we improve customer service efficiency, especially the speed at which problems are resolved?

CZ: I strongly support improving customer service efficiency. When Binance first started, we had a policy of responding to customers within 24 hours, which was one of the key factors in Binance's success. Later, we raised the goal to responding within 5 minutes. Although this is difficult to achieve during peak periods, we are still trying our best to improve. If customer service response time takes two days, it is indeed bad feedback, and I will give them feedback to push for improved efficiency.

Advice for female KOLs: How to deal with attacks and escalation?

CZ: Regarding female KOLs, firstly, it's important to understand that there is no absolute fairness in this world, and differences do exist between men and women. 50% of the workers around me are women; they tend to be more resilient and enduring, but also more susceptible to emotional influences. As KOLs, especially female KOLs, you must learn to withstand online criticism and attacks, because there will always be a small group of people who specifically target women . Accepting this criticism and ignoring less important content is a personal choice.

For KOLs' career development, it's advisable to choose projects with potential, especially established large platforms or promising startups. While large platforms like Binance offer stability, startups may provide more opportunities, such as equity or tokens. Choosing the right industry is also crucial, whether it's meme coins, utility coins, or other sectors. The key to career development is choosing an industry with ample room for growth; the cryptocurrency world offers such opportunities, while the AI industry is less reliant on KOLs.

In general, choosing the right industry first, and then choosing high-quality clients or platforms, is the key to KOL development.

What are the future plans for the live streaming section of Binance Square?

CZ: I'm not directly responsible for Binance's product planning, but personally, I hope to see a platform where users can freely exchange ideas at a very high quality. When content creators or streamers have a clear source of income, and users can enjoy high-quality content, the platform's financial effect will naturally be enhanced. I think that currently, Binance Square's content leans towards trading and finance, lacking entertainment value; it should increase its appeal while improving content quality.

Furthermore, the platform should provide bloggers with significant revenue, and users should also be able to benefit from supporting this content. Binance Square's inherent advantage lies in its trading platform features, easily enabling functions such as tipping, transfers, and social trading. I hope that in the future, the platform's live streaming, chat, trading, and payment functions can be fully integrated, becoming a superapp.

However, the specific planning will still be the responsibility of Binance's two CEOs, and I will try to participate as little as possible.

What is BNB's next goal?

CZ: I won't discuss specific figures, as I don't have concrete evidence. I believe BNB's ecosystem is relatively stable and very large. What I'm most proud of is the large number of active developers (builders) and the strong community. Currently, BNB's community has enormous development potential, and I personally hold a significant amount of BNB. Therefore, I'm very optimistic about BNB's future. Although I won't discuss specific goals, I believe the community's support will help us do even better. Thank you for your support!

My thoughts on community live streaming and community coins

CZ: I can't comment on individual coins. However, I'm not entirely clear on the specific details of the live stream's policy. Generally speaking, Binance's policy is to avoid politics and not participate in any inappropriate content (such as pornography). Discussions about cryptocurrencies, including technology, coins, market analysis, and news, are all allowed. While political topics may not be important to many retail investors, Binance's official policy has always been to avoid participating in politically related discussions.

Regarding live streaming and community tokens, as a basic principle, we should respect others and refrain from doing anything that harms ourselves or others . As for specific tokens or community tokens, I cannot comment on their future development.

Will altcoins experience another surge in popularity?

CZ: Everyone may have a different definition of altcoins. Generally speaking, in the long run, the crypto world cannot have only Bitcoin as a dominant coin. There are currently tens of thousands of coins, and most of the top few hundred with large market capitalizations have real-world applications or uses. Therefore, a surge in altcoin popularity is inevitable in the future.

Currently, Bitcoin serves as a strong store of value as a "reserve currency" among digital currencies, but it is not well-suited for everyday transactions due to high transaction fees and limited programmability, lacking features such as smart contracts. Therefore, in the short term, many public blockchains and cryptocurrencies with different functionalities will continue to emerge. These cryptocurrencies will experience bull and bear markets in tandem with market cycles.

As for whether there will be a future altcoin boom, it certainly will, but the specific timing, which coins will emerge, and their scale are all details that are difficult to predict in a few words, and no one can accurately foresee them.

Understanding the Risks and Opportunities in the Crypto Industry Following US Legal Events

CZ: This experience has indeed given me a new understanding of the risks and opportunities in the crypto industry. First, the power of state power is very strong, especially in the United States, so we have to be especially careful about compliance. I've always adhered to the principle of not intentionally harming others or myself, and acting in accordance with basic principles. However, sometimes the formulation of laws can present us with challenges. For example, the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act made me realize that even if there is only one U.S. user on the platform, we may face accountability within the next five years.

When Binance first started, I was in Shanghai. As someone with a technical background, I didn't know much about compliance. Therefore, the biggest lesson I learned from this experience is that everyone must operate legally and compliantly, respecting the laws of each country. As an emerging industry, the crypto sector will always face risks, so we need to learn how to protect ourselves and effectively mitigate these risks.

Will there be a bull market in the next 3 to 4 months?

CZ: It's very difficult to accurately predict market trends over the next three to four months. I don't know anyone who can accurately predict market changes in the coming months. Perhaps the most influential figure is the US president, whose policies can affect the global economy , but even someone at that level would find it difficult to make accurate predictions.

What advice do you have for beginners working with contracts?

CZ: For beginners, I don't recommend dabbling in futures or contracts. It's a high-risk, high-difficulty product. Although the returns can be high, it's not suitable for beginners. I suggest that if you want to try, you should start with a very small amount of capital, and gradually increase your investment after you've mastered the basic skills. Beginners are generally not suited to trading contracts directly.