Portugal orders closure of Polymarket for Their Residents

When the Biggest Prediction Market Is Shut Out, the Bets Don’t Disappear

Yesterday, I found myself browsing a prediction market on Predictbase, a relatively new platform I have used in the past.

The market was titled “Portugal Presidential Election Winner”, and at the time of writing it had already seen over $6,000 in volume — not bad at all for a small, lesser-known site.

It’s a neat example of what prediction markets do best: aggregating sentiment, speculation, and conviction into a single price that claims to say something meaningful about the future.

What made the moment ironic was what came next. Later that same day, I came across the news that Portugal had ordered the closure of Polymarket, the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market, giving it 48 hours to shut down operations for Portuguese users.

Predictbase and platforms like it are small fry compared to Polymarket’s scale and liquidity, but the contrast was striking.

Portugal may be forcing the closure of the biggest player in the space, yet for anyone looking to place similar bets, alternatives are only a search away.

The drain, so to speak, may have been plugged, but over time, the water will spill elsewhere.

Portugal Moves to Shut Down Betting at Polymarket

Portugal’s gambling regulator issued a formal order requiring Polymarket to cease offering services to users in the country.

The regulator’s position is straightforward: Polymarket does not hold a Portuguese gambling license, and betting on political events is prohibited under national law.

From the state’s perspective, prediction markets tied to elections are not innovative financial tools — they are unlicensed gambling products.

The timing of the enforcement is important. Regulators were reportedly alarmed by a sharp increase in activity surrounding Portugal’s recent presidential election, including millions of euros wagered shortly before official results were released.

That late surge raised concerns about insider information, exit poll leaks, and broader election-integrity risks — issues that regulators treat with particular sensitivity.

Polymarket was given a short compliance window and warned that failure to comply could result in ISP-level blocking.

While the platform may remain technically accessible for some users in the short term, the message from authorities is clear: political prediction markets are not welcome under Portugal’s current legal framework.

What This Means for Portuguese Users

For users based in Portugal, the practical impact is uncertainty. If ISP-level blocks are enforced, accessing Polymarket through normal channels may become impossible.

Even if tech-savvy users find workarounds, opening new positions could become risky, and withdrawing funds may become more complicated as the platform operates outside local regulatory protection.

Unlike licensed gambling operators, unregulated platforms are not subject to consumer safeguards or dispute mechanisms under Portuguese law.

If something goes wrong, users have little formal recourse. In effect, the legal risk shifts almost entirely onto the bettor.

For governments, shutting these markets down is often easier than attempting to supervise them.

The Whack-a-Mole Problem. Portugal’s action highlights a recurring pattern in the prediction market space.

Blocking one platform does not remove the demand. It simply redirects it.

Smaller sites like Predictbase, offshore operators, or fully decentralized protocols can replicate similar markets with minimal friction. Users who are motivated will search, adapt, and migrate.

From a regulatory standpoint, this creates a familiar dilemma: strict enforcement reduces visibility and control, but permissive regulation risks legitimising a category of betting many governments are uncomfortable allowing in the first place.

final thoughts

Prediction markets sit in an awkward middle ground. Supporters argue they are powerful tools for aggregating information and forecasting real-world events more accurately than polls or pundits.

Critics see them as speculative gambling products dressed up in financial language. Portugal has clearly chosen the second interpretation.

As my experience with Prediction markets show, the ecosystem does not disappear when a major platform is removed. It fragments, reshapes, and continues elsewhere.

Polymarket may be shut out of Portugal, but the bets themselves are unlikely to disappear.

Read More

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