Coinbase Expects Stronger Crypto Markets After Q4 2025 Reset Into 2026

TLDR

• Coinbase says Q4 2025 wiped out excess leverage, improving market structure.
• Onchain data shows reduced panic selling and more stable investor behavior.
• Derivatives markets show restraint with lower leverage and balanced positions.
• Macro risks are seen as priced in, with markets showing fewer sharp reactions.

Crypto markets are entering 2026 with a stronger foundation, according to Coinbase Institutional’s latest report. Following a market reset in late 2025, excess leverage has been flushed out, and investor behavior has become more disciplined. With more balanced positioning and reduced panic selling, the outlook for Q1 2026 is optimistic. Coinbase suggests that these healthier conditions may help the market better absorb future shocks.

Market Stability Returns After Q4 Drawdown

Crypto markets have entered Q1 2026 with a firmer structure following a broad market reset in late 2025. This comes from Coinbase Institutional’s latest Charting Crypto report, which tracks industry trends using onchain metrics and investor data.

The report found that a sharp drawdown in Q4 2025 helped remove excess leverage and speculative positions from the system. According to David Duong, global head of investment research at Coinbase Institutional, “Our outlook on crypto markets is constructive to start the new year, even though the clouds from last year’s leverage-fueled liquidations have not cleared entirely.”

Markets are now experiencing more selective investor engagement and disciplined trading behavior, which Coinbase views as a healthier sign for long-term growth.

Investor Behavior Turns More Cautious and Selective

Coinbase noted that current market participation remains active but is no longer dominated by short-term speculation. Instead, investor positioning is described as more measured and less crowded than in earlier bull phases.

This shift reflects a broader recalibration in market sentiment. Traders and institutional players are now showing a preference for sustainable risk management over aggressive risk-taking. As a result, downside fragility is seen to be reduced, allowing markets to better absorb shocks.

The report also mentioned that derivatives usage has shown restraint. Leverage has been more contained and positions appear balanced, reducing the likelihood of sharp liquidations.

Onchain Metrics Reflect Improved Holder Behavior

Onchain data collected by Coinbase Institutional indicates that panic selling has declined. Holders appear more stable and their behavior is showing signs of normalization after last year’s volatility.

Supply dynamics have become more orderly, suggesting long-term participants are now in stronger control of their positions. These metrics point to improved market structure, with less short-term disruption from fear-based selling.

Such trends support the broader idea that the late 2025 correction helped bring a healthier balance to the market. Coinbase suggests this could lay the groundwork for more consistent trading activity through 2026.

Macro Risks Appear to Be Absorbed Into Market Positioning

Although macroeconomic uncertainties continue, including issues related to monetary policy and geopolitics, Coinbase says these risks are no longer causing sudden disruptions. Instead, they are increasingly being priced into existing market positions.

This means that while the risks are still present, the market is reacting more calmly. Investor responses have become more measured, and sudden shifts in policy or global events are not triggering the same levels of panic as before.

Coinbase Institutional believes this stability may help maintain the current market footing. While not predicting a sharp upward trend, the report sees the early part of 2026 as a rebuilding phase based on healthier conditions.

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