Banking giant sets gold’s price for H2 2026

After gold attained a record high of over $5,000, American banking giant Morgan Stanley has noted that the precious metal has more steam left in the coming months.

Notably, gold edged higher on Monday as investors turned to the asset amid increasing fears of a possible government shutdown at the end of the month. As of press time, the metal was trading at $5,901, up more than 2% on the day. Year to date, the yellow metal is already up nearly 18%.

Regarding the price outlook, Morgan Stanley has set a bullish target for gold, projecting the metal will reach $5,700 per ounce in the second half of 2026 as geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and investor inflows continue to underpin prices.

Gold surpasses past projection

The investment bank said gold has already surpassed its earlier second-half forecast of $4,750 per ounce, yet sees no indication that the rally has peaked. Instead, Morgan Stanley views the current move as part of a broader structural upswing supported by persistent uncertainty across global markets.

According to the bank’s analysis, demand from central banks remains a key pillar of support, while strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds are absorbing limited available inventories following several years of market deficits. These factors have tightened supply conditions and reinforced upward price momentum.

Morgan Stanley also pointed to a weakening U.S. dollar as a supportive backdrop for gold, alongside robust physical demand. Together, these dynamics form the basis of the bank’s bull case, which implies roughly 14% upside from current price levels.

Gold’s advance has been reinforced by rising safe-haven demand amid renewed concerns over U.S. fiscal stability. Political tensions surrounding federal government funding have increased the risk of a shutdown, an outcome that historically boosts investor appetite for defensive assets such as gold.

In parallel, the bank noted continued strength across the broader precious metals complex, with silver showing signs of tight physical supply, particularly in Asian markets, highlighting the underlying demand driving the sector.

Featured image via Shutterstock