Metaplanet Stock Prediction: Down 8% Today After $720M Bitcoin Loss

Metaplanet Inc. shares fell after the company revised its full-year forecast for fiscal 2025, reported a massive $720 million Bitcoin impairment charge, and issued a fiscal 2026 outlook heavily dependent on BTC-linked income.

The Tokyo-listed firm announced it booked a Bitcoin impairment loss of $720 million (¥104.6 billion) following a BTC price decline. It also reported a $155 million (¥22.6 billion) foreign-exchange translation gain from yen depreciation in other comprehensive income. After netting these effects, Metaplanet said the value of its Bitcoin net assets dropped by about $565 million (¥82 billion) for the period. The company held 35,102 Bitcoin as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Metaplanet declined to provide guidance for ordinary income or net income attributable to shareholders, citing Bitcoin price volatility as too unpredictable.

Fiscal 2026 Forecast Bets Big On BTC Income

Metaplanet projected fiscal 2026 revenue of $110 million (¥16.0 billion), more than double its fiscal 2025 revenue forecast of $61 million (¥8.9 billion). It forecast operating income of $78 million (¥11.4 billion), assuming selling, general, and administrative expenses of about $32 million (¥4.6 billion).

The company expects $107 million (¥15.6 billion) of its $110 million revenue forecast to come from Bitcoin Income Generation operations. It said expanded Bitcoin holdings in fiscal 2025 increase available capital and BTC collateral for Bitcoin-related options, supporting premium income through fiscal 2026.

Metaplanet converts yen to U.S. dollars for operations and Bitcoin purchases. The firm plans to continue separating Bitcoin price effects from foreign-exchange impacts in its disclosures and describes itself as a ”Bitcoin Treasury company,” publishing daily BTC holdings, unrealized gains/losses, and related metrics on its website.

Metaplanet Stock Builds Range With Clear Technical Targets

Metaplanet shares are trading within a broad consolidation pattern after a sharp rally triggered by the company's initial Bitcoin purchases. The weekly chart shows price action within a rising channel, with recent candles compressing into a defined accumulation range, signaling cooling momentum rather than a trend reversal, as higher lows hold above channel support.

Volume expanded during the initial breakout, then faded during sideways action. Recent volume pickup near range lows suggests renewed buyer interest defending support. The volume profile shows heavy trading interest clustered below current price levels, often acting as a cushion during pullbacks.

Technical analysis from X user Enea₿ highlights upside targets at $6.20 (¥900), $13.45 (¥1,954), and $30.50 (¥4,435) over a six-month horizon. These levels align with prior resistance and rising channel extensions but assume Bitcoin recovers toward $115,000 territory, keeping Metaplanet's equity tightly correlated to BTC price action.

As long as price holds within the accumulation box and respects rising channel support, the broader structure remains bullish. A sustained breakout above the range would target the lower levels first, while channel support failure would undermine the setup. For now, the chart shows healthy consolidation within an established uptrend.