Crypto market volatility risk grows as token unlocks drive a $464 million supply wave

Traders are preparing for a packed week in which token unlocks could inject hundreds of millions of dollars in fresh supply into the crypto market.

$464 million in new tokens set to hit the market

This final week of January 2026 will see more than $464 million in locked crypto assets released into circulation, according to Tokenomist. Moreover, analysts warn that this cluster of unlocks may amplify short-term volatility for both major and mid-cap projects.

The mechanism is simple. During these events, previously locked tokens held by teams, early backers, or ecosystem reserves become tradable. However, when circulating supply rises faster than demand, prices often come under pressure, prompting traders to track unlock calendars closely.

Why this week's wave matters for crypto markets

Over $464M worth of tokens is scheduled to be released in the coming days, potentially reshaping liquidity conditions. That said, the impact will vary by asset, depending on depth of demand, market structure, and how concentrated the new supply is among early holders.

Market focus is clustering around three key projects: SIGN, KMNO and JUP. These names, alongside several others, are considered especially sensitive because they are still in price discovery and remain heavily influenced by tokenomics events.

One-time cliff unlocks above $5 million

According to Tokenomist, several major projects face one-time cliff events, where large blocks of tokens are released all at once rather than progressively. These single-date unlocks, each worth more than $5 million, can trigger sharp, if temporary, moves in both price and liquidity.

The most prominent case is SUI, which is set for the week's largest release, valued at more than $64 million. Moreover, other highlighted projects include SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, JUP, OP, TREE, SAHARA and ZORA, each bringing millions of dollars worth of new tokens to market in a single event.

An updated breakdown shows that the top 7 cliff events alone account for $142.98M. This group is led by SUI, with $80.38M in tokens scheduled for release. However, cliff token unlocks do not guarantee a sell-off; they simply compress a large supply change into a narrow time window that traders monitor closely.

Linear releases add steady selling pressure

Alongside these one-time cliff events, the market will also absorb a series of linear releases, in which new tokens are unlocked gradually each day rather than in a single drop. These linear token unlocks rarely grab headlines, yet they can still exert continuous and sometimes underestimated selling pressure.

Projects with daily release amounts above $1 million include RAIN, SOL, RIVER, TRUMP, CC, WLD, DOGE and AVAX. Together with the one-time events, these linear flows collectively contribute to the roughly $464 million of value scheduled to unlock.

Cliff and linear schedules over the next 7 days

Looking ahead, Tokenomist tracks upcoming one-time large releases exceeding $5 million over the next 7 days for assets such as SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, JUP, OP, TREE, SAHARA and ZORA. Moreover, linear daily unlocks above $1 million are expected for RAIN, SOL, RIVER, TRUMP, CC, WLD and DOGE.

Historically, price reactions can start well before the official date, as sophisticated traders position around these events. That said, the effect is highly path-dependent: in stronger risk-on conditions, markets can sometimes absorb or even rally through large releases if demand is robust.

How traders use token unlocks in risk management

For active participants, the token unlocks meaning is straightforward: they map out a foreseeable shift in supply that can alter short-term price dynamics. Many traders adjust position sizes or hedge exposure when large events appear on the calendar, especially when liquidity is already thin.

In more challenging market environments, major unlocks can reinforce existing selling pressure, particularly for tokens where fundamentals or narrative are weakening. Nevertheless, high-quality projects with strong ecosystems and persistent demand can often digest even sizable releases without lasting damage to price structure.

Ultimately, this $464 million wave of scheduled releases is one of the most closely watched near-term catalysts in the crypto market. Whether trading short term or investing with a multi-year horizon, monitoring unlock schedules has become a key element of effective risk management.