Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Moved in 60 Days — US ETF Flows Explain It

Bitcoin traded sideways on Monday as selling from US investors continued to cap upside momentum, leaving the asset locked in a narrow range for nearly two months.

Market data cited in Wintermute’s January 26 market update shows Bitcoin holding between $85,000 and $94,000 after an early January attempt to break higher toward $97,000 failed to attract sustained demand.

Source: Wintermute

The report highlighted record weekly outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, a reversal from the strong inflows that supported January’s rally.

As ETF redemptions accelerated, the Coinbase premium slipped into negative territory, signaling that US-based traders were selling at a discount relative to offshore markets. European flows were described as marginally positive, while Asian markets remained largely neutral.

Wintermute noted that US activity continues to dictate market direction due to the concentration of institutional capital entering crypto through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated spot platforms. Until those flows stabilize, price action is likely to remain uneven and range-bound.

Source: Wintermute

Volatility Compresses As Buyers Defend $85,000 Support

Bitcoin’s extended consolidation between $85,000 and $94,000 stands out against its historical tendency for sharp directional moves. Each pullback toward the lower end of the range has attracted buyers, reinforcing $85,000 as a key support level.

At the same time, repeated failures near the mid-$90,000 area suggest limited conviction among larger participants.

Options markets reflect that hesitation. Implied volatility across Bitcoin contracts remains compressed despite growing macro uncertainty, indicating low participation and reduced appetite for directional bets.

Wintermute described this as a market stuck rather than weak, with institutions appearing to trade the range while retail participation stays subdued.

The contrast with traditional markets has also become more visible. Gold and silver have pushed to record highs amid a softer US dollar, while Bitcoin has struggled to attract similar safe-haven demand.

The firm added that any renewed risk-off move in equities would likely pull crypto lower as correlations with the Nasdaq tend to strengthen during periods of stress.

Bitcoin Faces Key Test From This Week’s Economic Events

This week’s economic calendar could finally break Bitcoin out of its prolonged consolidation. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with no rate cut expected.

However, attention will focus on the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone, as any hawkish signal on inflation could lift yields and pressure risk assets.

Corporate earnings also carry weight. Results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are expected to shape sentiment around the AI trade, which has been a major driver of equity performance.

Wintermute noted that cautious guidance or pressure on margins could weigh on technology stocks and spill over into crypto markets.

Also Read: Bitcoin Faces Growing Regulatory Pushback From Central Banks