Bitcoin’s Reaction Around FOMC Meetings: A History of Pullbacks and Price Drops

TLDR

• Bitcoin has shown volatility around FOMC meetings, with seven out of eight meetings followed by price drops.
• Bitcoin dropped 27% after the January 29, 2025, FOMC meeting and 9% after the December 10 meeting.
• Expectations for a rate cut in January 2026 are extremely low, at just 2.8%.
• Bitcoin’s reaction to FOMC meetings has generally been bearish, despite hopes of lower rates boosting risk assets.
• Bitcoin trades at $89,066 with a 0.7% increase in the last 24 hours, fluctuating between $88.2K and $89.5K.

Bitcoin’s reaction to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings has shown consistent volatility. In the past year, FOMC meetings have often been followed by notable pullbacks, with only one instance resulting in a brief upside. As the first meeting of 2026 approaches, Bitcoin’s behavior during past meetings offers insights into potential market movements.

FOMC Meetings and Bitcoin’s Historical Price Movements

Throughout 2025, a post on X by Ali Charts confirms that Bitcoin’s price has displayed volatility around FOMC meetings. Out of the eight meetings, seven saw a drop in Bitcoin’s price, while only one resulted in a positive movement. For instance, Bitcoin dropped by 27% after the January 29 meeting and by 9% following the December 10 meeting.

These events have shown that Bitcoin tends to struggle in the wake of FOMC decisions, even when market optimism builds up beforehand. The data from these FOMC weeks highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to react negatively to rate decisions or expectations.

Despite market anticipation of lower rates, which often leads to hopes of a boost in risk assets, Bitcoin has largely traded lower. The volatility surrounding these events suggests that Bitcoin may face pressure following the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Low Expectations for a January Rate Cut

Expectations for a rate cut during the January 2026 FOMC meeting are extremely low, at just 2.8%. Analysts have already priced in minimal chances for a policy easing in the near term. As such, Bitcoin’s behavior during the meeting could mirror past trends, suggesting a bearish reaction.

With low expectations for changes in monetary policy, the markets may focus on how the FOMC’s actions impact liquidity conditions. Bitcoin’s historical performance around such events suggests that caution is warranted, especially considering past pullbacks.

At the time of press, CoinMarketCap data indicates that Bitcoin trades at $89,066.51, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours. The price shows a clear upward trend, with fluctuations between $88.2K and $89.5K. Bitcoin’s price movement started at a lower point, briefly dipping, before steadily rising to its current value.

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