Bitcoin’s Doomsday Clock sets date when quantum computers will break BTC encryption

A new tool dubbed the Quantum Doomsday Clock has set a timeline for when quantum computers could become capable of breaking Bitcoin’s (BTC) encryption.

According to the tool, developed by Colton Dillion and cryptographer Rick Carback, founders of Quip Network, investors have until March 08, 2028, at 11:23 AM to secure their cryptocurrencies.

The clock models advances in quantum hardware, error correction, and cryptographic attack efficiency to estimate when elliptic curve cryptography could be compromised by a sufficiently powerful quantum system.

Notably, Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve digital signatures to secure wallets and authorize transactions. 

Breaking this cryptography would not alter the blockchain or shut down the network, but it could allow attackers to derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling unauthorized spending from affected addresses, particularly those that reuse addresses or have already revealed public keys.

The 2028 estimate is based on recent research suggesting that fewer logical qubits may be required to break elliptic curve cryptography than previously thought, assuming continued improvements in error rates, surface-code error correction, and gate fidelities in line with current industry roadmaps.

Experts on quantum computing and Bitcoin 

While the timeline is aggressive, it aligns with warnings from parts of the quantum computing industry. For instance, IonQ CEO Niccolo De Masi has said that cryptographically relevant quantum computers could emerge before the end of the decade, while Bitcoin security engineer Jameson Lopp argues that quantum threats represent a medium-term risk requiring early preparation.

Others are more skeptical with Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, contending that quantum computers capable of attacking Bitcoin remain far off due to major engineering, coherence, and scaling challenges.

Institutional assessments are generally more conservative, with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology placing quantum threats to public-key cryptography in the 2030s, a view reflected in its ongoing transition to post-quantum cryptographic standards.

Meanwhile, quantum hardware development continues to accelerate. In this line, Google and IBM are advancing superconducting qubits, with Google demonstrating more stable logical qubits and IBM outlining roadmaps toward large-scale error-corrected systems. 

Quantinuum and IonQ are focusing on trapped-ion approaches with lower error rates, while China reports progress across superconducting, photonic, and neutral-atom quantum technologies.

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