Filipinos see China as top security threat, OCTA Research poll shows

A GROWING majority of Filipinos see China as the country’s biggest external threat, according to a December survey by OCTA Research, as tensions between Manila and Beijing continue to simmer over disputed areas in the South China Sea.

About 79% of adult Filipinos identified China as the Philippines’ greatest threat, up from 74% in a similar poll conducted in July, OCTA said in a report released on Wednesday.

The increase points to a deepening and widespread perception that has remained dominant for years.

“Across all major areas, China is consistently viewed as the country’s top threat,” OCTA said. “This reflects a broad and geographically widespread national consensus.”

The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.

OCTA said the rise between July and December did not signal a sudden change in sentiment but rather an intensification of an already entrenched view.

Public concern, the group added, appears responsive to recent developments while remaining anchored to a high baseline of threat perception.

Relations between the Philippines and China have deteriorated in recent years as Beijing continues to assert expansive claims in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass each year.

China claims most of the area under its U-shaped nine-dash line, overlapping with the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Taiwan.

Manila has repeatedly rejected China’s claims, citing a 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal that voided Beijing’s position under international law. China has refused to recognize the decision.

Confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels have become more frequent, with Manila accusing Chinese coast guard and maritime militia ships of harassment and dangerous maneuvers, including the use of water cannons near contested features.

The survey showed that perceptions of China as a threat were strongest in the National Capital Region, where 84% of respondents shared that view. This was followed by Mindanao at 79%, and both Luzon and the Visayas at 78%.

“China has been identified by a clear majority of Filipinos as the country’s greatest threat consistently from January 2021 to December 2025, far outpacing all other countries across survey waves,” the pollster said.

Other countries trailed far behind in perceived threat levels. About 5% of respondents named Russia, 4% pointed to the US and 2% cited North Korea. Another 4% said the Philippines had no external threats.

The poll also showed persistent distrust toward China. 60% of Filipinos said the Philippines should not trust China, while only 13% said they trusted the country. About 23% were undecided.

“Overall, the findings indicate broad-based distrust toward China across demographic, regional and socioeconomic groups,” OCTA said.

Distrust was highest in Luzon at 63%, followed by the National Capital Region at 62%, Mindanao at 58%, and the Visayas at 56%. Trust in China was highest in Mindanao at 18%, compared with 12% in Luzon and the Visayas and 8% in Metro Manila.

“While small pockets of higher trust exist in specific regions and among younger age groups, skepticism remains the dominant sentiment nationwide,” according to the report.

The OCTA survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above from Dec. 3 to 11. It has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. — Adrian H. Halili