Dogecoin (DOGE) Price: Charts Show Potential 30% Rally as Whale Buying Returns

TLDR

• Dogecoin price shows bullish divergence on charts with RSI making higher lows while price made lower lows between December and January
• DOGE needs to reclaim the 20-day EMA to confirm a potential 30% rally toward $0.158, similar to the 35% move seen after January 2
• On-chain data shows spent coin activity dropped from 158 million to 41.9 million DOGE since January 26, indicating reduced selling pressure
• Smaller whale wallets holding 1-10 million DOGE increased positions from 10.95 billion to 10.96 billion coins
• Analysts project long-term targets at $0.65 and potentially $1.25, though short-term action may remain range-bound without a catalyst

Dogecoin price has remained flat over the past week, down about 1% in seven days and 2.5% over the past month. The meme coin is trading at $0.1249 at the time of writing, up 2.51% in the last 24 hours.

Daily trading volume sits at approximately $2.15 billion. Market capitalization stands near $20.99 billion.

Despite the quiet price action, technical indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing. A bullish divergence pattern has formed on the charts between December 18 and January 25.

During this period, DOGE price made a lower low. At the same time, the RSI indicator made a higher low. This pattern typically indicates sellers are losing strength.

The same setup appeared in late December. After that signal, Dogecoin rallied approximately 35% in a short timeframe. The pattern does not guarantee the same result will occur again, but it shows the market has responded to this signal before.

The rebound has started in a small way. However, confirmation requires DOGE to clear a key technical level.

Key Technical Level to Watch

The 20-day exponential moving average represents the critical line for Dogecoin price. DOGE last reclaimed this level on January 2. After that move, the price increased close to 20% as part of the larger 35% rally.

If Dogecoin moves above the 20-day EMA and holds, momentum could return quickly. The pattern suggests a potential move toward $0.158, which would represent roughly a 30% to 35% gain from current levels.

If DOGE falls below $0.117, the bullish setup breaks. That level acts as the line where the technical case no longer holds.

On-chain data supports what the charts are showing. Spent coin activity has dropped sharply since January 26. The metric fell from around 158 million DOGE to about 41.9 million DOGE.

When fewer coins move, it typically means holders are waiting rather than selling. This suggests reduced pressure from people trying to exit positions.

Whale Accumulation Continues

Smaller whale wallets are slowly adding to their positions. Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE increased their balances from 10.95 billion coins to 10.96 billion coins.

The change is small, but the direction matters. These holders are adding while the price remains quiet rather than chasing moves higher.

Derivatives data shows short positions still outweigh long positions. This keeps squeeze risk limited but also reduces the chance of sharp downside moves if price begins climbing.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks noted that Dogecoin is holding above a resistance trendline that was previously breached. He maintains a long-term upside target of $0.6533, representing a potential gain of more than 400%.

Marks stated that if DOGE passes $0.6533, the next level of interest would be around $1.2511. However, this depends on overall cryptocurrency market sentiment, particularly for higher-risk assets like meme coins.

Another analyst, KressPex, offered a more cautious view. He suggested DOGE may remain range-bound through summer 2026 without a major catalyst. Historical trends indicate potential pullbacks in June, August, and September.

The 20-day EMA reclaim remains the key trigger that could unlock the potential 30% move toward $0.158 in the near term.

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