XRP Supercycle Scenario Is Not Dead Yet: Bollinger Bands Saves 56% Upside Against Bitcoin

On every major TradingView chart, the XRP vs. Bitcoin (BTC) pair is looking like the altcoin’s outperformance is off,  but that monthly time frame is still intact, and that is enough to keep all talk about the “XRP supercycle” alive. Even with a red January, the monthly Bollinger Band midline has not broken, and as long as that line stays put, the bullish thesis does not just get stronger.

That “lifeline,” literally, which is at 0.00001985 BTC for one XRP, has been providing structural support since mid-2024. It rejected breakdowns in August, October and now again in January. So, the supercycle is still going strong.

It is all about the bandwidth. The upper Bollinger Band for the month is currently at 0.00003345 BTC, which is the next natural expansion point. From current levels near 0.000021 BTC, that is a clean 56% upside. 

Also, the price is not just randomly trending — it has been coiled up and then shot up above the midline for eight months straight. Either this a failed breakout or a loaded pause is open for debate.

How much Bitcoin for one XRP?

The weekly structure confirms the stall: nine straight candles between 0.00002021 BTC and 0.0000228 BTC, tightly orbiting the 20-week average. The daily price action dipped into the lower Bollinger Band at 0.0000205 BTC but bounced back in hours. There is pressure, but no collapse. No candle body has broken the monthly midline. so no momentum has flipped.

The last time XRP/BTC held this structure — Q1, 2025 — it tripled within weeks. Before that, the same setup preceded the 2021 impulse rally. They both started with the same support retest, and now it is happening again.

The chart is not breaking down, it is holding stable at the same level that launched previous rallies. As long as 0.00001985 BTC for one XRP stands, the supercycle argument holds.