Arthur Hayes Says Falling Dollar Liquidity Is Pressuring Bitcoin

• U.S. dollar liquidity has fallen by about $300 billion in recent weeks.
• A $200 billion increase in Treasury cash balances drove most of the decline.
• Analysts link Bitcoin’s price weakness to tighter liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin prices weakened in January as U.S. dollar liquidity declined across financial markets. The drop followed a sharp increase in the U.S. Treasury cash holdings at the Federal Reserve. Market analysts say tighter liquidity conditions are pressuring Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Dollar Liquidity Continues to Contract

Measures of U.S. dollar liquidity show a sustained decline over recent months, signaling tighter financial conditions. The USD Liquidity Index, which tracks system-wide dollar availability, fell to about 10.88 million by January 29, down nearly 7% from its August 2025 peak.

The index reached a high of about 11.79 million on August 19 before entering a steady downward trend. Liquidity bottomed near 10.78 million in late October. Although the index posted several short-term rebounds in November and December, it failed to recover prior highs.

Market participants view the pattern as a sign that liquidity conditions remain restrictive. Lower highs and lower lows suggest that dollar availability has not stabilized.

Treasury Cash Build Drives Recent Decline

Co-founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said the liquidity decline intensified over the past few weeks. In a post on X, Hayes estimated that roughly $300 billion in dollar liquidity has been withdrawn during that period.

He attributed about $200 billion of the decline to a rise in the U.S. Treasury General Account, or TGA. The TGA is the federal government’s primary account at the Federal Reserve and is used to manage daily cash flows.

When the Treasury increases its cash balance, funds are transferred out of the banking system. This reduces bank reserves and tightens overall liquidity. Hayes said the government may be building cash reserves to ensure it can fund operations if a government shutdown occurs.

Impact on Financial Markets

Rising Treasury balances often affect financial markets by reducing available capital. Lower liquidity can weigh on asset prices, particularly those that depend on strong risk appetite.

Equities, cryptocurrencies, and other high-beta assets tend to struggle when dollar liquidity contracts. Investors typically reduce exposure as financing conditions tighten and volatility rises.

Market data shows that recent liquidity rebounds failed to gain traction. Analysts say this reinforces the view that current moves reflect temporary relief rather than a broader easing cycle.

Bitcoin Reacts to Macro Conditions

Bitcoin has declined alongside the liquidity contraction. The asset trades at $82,396, a 6.3% decline in the past day, increasing its daily loss to 7.8% in the past week. Notably,  Bitcoin has declined 35% from its all-time high above $126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025.

Hayes said the cryptocurrency’s weakness is consistent with historical patterns during periods of tightening dollar conditions. Bitcoin often trades as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than an isolated store of value. When liquidity expands, prices tend to rise. When liquidity contracts, prices often face pressure.

Recent price action reflects that relationship. Despite attempts to recover late last year, Bitcoin struggled to sustain gains as liquidity weakened again in January.

Market data also shows weaker trader participation. CoinGlass reports crypto futures open interest is down about 42% from its peak, with rallies quickly met by selling pressure.

Capital has shifted toward gold and silver, limiting new inflows into digital assets amid ongoing volatility.

Outlook and What Markets Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring Treasury cash balances and Federal Reserve data for signs of a shift. A sustained drawdown in the TGA or renewed growth in bank reserves could ease pressure on markets.

Until then, liquidity conditions are expected to remain a key driver of price movements. Without a clear reversal, risk assets may continue to trade with limited upside.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Stuck Below 50 Day EMA as Gold Rally & Dollar Strength Drain Momentum