Will Bitcoin Price Crash in 2026 as Market Volatility Rises?

The recent Bitcoin price decline to a new 2026 low of $81,000 has sparked discussions of how low the flagship crypto could drop this year and if another crash is on the horizon. This comes amid heightened market volatility due to macro factors such as the Trump tariffs, the Fed drama, concerns about the health of the global economy, and rising U.S. inflation.

Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Further Decline This Year

In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode indicated that BTC is at risk of a further decline despite its recent drop to $81,000. The platform highlighted a $1.25 billion short gamma pocket at around $80,000, noting that a clean break into this zone would increase the risk of the leading crypto revisiting the $70,000 range. Glassnode added that this could occur as dealer hedging can intensify downside momentum.

In another X post, Glassnode highlighted several factors that are exerting sustained sell-side pressure on the Bitcoin price. One is the fact that long-term holders remain active spenders. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that over the past 30 days, these long-term holders have distributed an average of 12,000 BTC per day, totaling 370,000 per month. “This highlights sizeable gross distribution, adding sustained sell-side pressure,” Glassnode added.

Furthermore, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows recently, which Glassnode noted is reducing a key source of spot demand. The platform remarked that the Bitcoin price faces greater downside pressure without ETF inflows absorbing supply. As CoinGape reported, these BTC ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $818 million on January 29, representing the largest daily net outflow since November 20. Meanwhile, in January, these funds recorded a net outflow of $1.61 billion, despite starting the year on a high note.

Glassnode also revealed that BTC miners are contributing to the Bitcoin price decline, as they have consistently sent coins to exchanges, resulting in net outflows. “This miner distribution adds structural sell pressure, contributing to the ongoing price weakness,” the platform noted.

How Low Can BTC Drop?

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently shared a chart that showed that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $66,800. This came as he noted that another sell signal in BTC as a bear channel has been completed. The veteran trader added that the price needs to reclaim $93,000 to invalidate this prediction.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ted alluded to the Bitcoin price action in previous cycles, which suggested that the flagship crypto could drop to as low as $30,000. However, the analyst opined that BTC would not go that low.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the BTC price has taken all the key liquidity levels and doesn’t need to drop below $80,000 to have enough liquidity for a bullish reversal. He added that the flagship crypto needs to break above $87,000, which could then put the psychological $100,000 level in focus.

However, he warned of two important factors to keep an eye on. He expects that if the gold price corrects further in the coming week, the Bitcoin price will likely decline further. Secondly, Michaël van de Poppe stated that there might be a shock response if Trump attacks Iran. CoinGape reported earlier this week that Trump had threatened Iran with a strike that would be “far worse” than last year’s if they do not negotiate.

This Could Be The Bottom For The Bitcoin Price

In a recent Substack post, Bitwise advisor Jeff Park raised the possibility of the recent decline marking the bottom for the Bitcoin price. This came as he noted that the leading crypto dropped to as low as $82,000 following the announcement that Kevin Warsh was Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

There are concerns that Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh is bearish for BTC because he is an inflation hawk. However, Park highlighted a scenario in which Warsh’s decision to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet and opt against further rate cuts could be bullish for Bitcoin.

Under this scenario, the Bitwise advisor predicts that the financial system’s foundation could break due to Warsh’s monetary policies, whereby duration assets suffer catastrophic repricing, leading to cash flows from these assets. He believes the Bitcoin price would benefit in this scenario since there was no standard or benchmark to which the flagship crypto was held in the first place. All that needs to happen is for BTC to remain scarce as these other assets lose their reliability.