BPI shares rise on PSEi rebalancing, performance outlook

By Isa Jane D. Acabal, Researcher

BANK OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS (BPI) shares climbed last week on Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rebalancing and on improved investor sentiment following the bank’s announcement of its performance targets for this year, analysts said.

BPI was the fifth most actively traded stock from Jan. 26 to 30, with 14.09 million shares worth P1.65 billion, according to PSE data.

The stock closed at P124 per share on Friday, up 6.9% from P116 the previous week. This outpaced the financial sector’s 1.8% week-on-week gain and the 0.1% decline in the benchmark PSEi.

Year to date, BPI shares have risen 6.8%, ahead of the financial sector’s 5% growth and the PSEi’s 4.6% increase.

Franco M. Fernandez, equity research analyst at DragonFi Securities, Inc., said the stock’s gain was largely driven by “rebalancing-related flows” toward the end of the week.

On Jan. 27, the PSE announced changes to its indices, with RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) set to replace Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) in the PSEi starting Feb. 2.

AGI will move to the PSE MidCap index, while Apex Mining Co., Inc. will be added and DoubleDragon Corp. removed. Meanwhile, Universal Robina Corp. will return to the PSE Dividend Yield index, which will also include OceanaGold (Philippines), Inc. as a new constituent.

“I expect prices to normalize next week, as sharp gap-ups during the run-off period, particularly those linked to PSEi rebalancing, have historically been followed by profit taking in the next session,” Mr. Fernandez said in a Viber message.

Unicapital Securities, Inc. Research Head Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz attributed the rise in BPI shares to positive investor sentiment as the market priced in the bank’s strong performance targets.

“This price movement is partly ahead of the release of its [full-year 2025] earnings, as investors anticipate strong performance driven by a rebound in borrowing demand,” she said in an e-mailed response to questions.

“Market sentiment may also have been supported by broader optimism in the banking sector amid easing inflation,” she added.

In an earlier interview with reporters, BPI President and Chief Executive Officer Jose Teodoro K. Limcaoco said the bank aims to exceed its 2025 performance this year, citing a rebound in demand for consumer loans.

BPI also started the public offer for its P5-billion Supporting Individuals Grow, Lead, and Achieve (SIGLA) Bonds, priced at 5.405% per annum, on Jan. 26.

In a disclosure to the stock exchange, the bank said this marked the second tranche of its P200-billion Bond and Commercial Paper Program, which will run until Feb. 4.

“BPI’s strategic shift toward higher-yielding segments is expected to boost profitability and help cushion any increase in provisioning, further reinforcing investor confidence,” Ms. Estacio-Cruz said.

In the third quarter of 2025, BPI’s attributable net income rose 0.6% to P17.53 billion, bringing its nine-month profit to P50.48 billion.

Ms. Estacio-Cruz projects fourth-quarter net profit at P16.9 billion and full-year earnings at P67.4 billion.

Mr. Fernandez forecasts BPI’s attributable net profit at P15 billion for the fourth quarter and P66 billion for full-year 2025. He placed support between P112 and P115 per share, with resistance at P125.