Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Defends $76K Support as Analysts Weigh $79.6K Rebound or $67K Correction

After failing to sustain the previously targeted $81,000–$82,000 support zone, Bitcoin is now trading near a technically sensitive area where longer-term structure and short-term downside risk converge.

At this stage, Bitcoin BTC price action reflects elevated uncertainty rather than directional conviction. Similar periods of indecision have appeared during prior mid-cycle pullbacks, notably in 2017 and 2021, when sharp declines within broader uptrends forced markets to reassess momentum before either resuming higher or extending corrections. Analysts are therefore split between a scenario that preserves the broader trend and one that allows for a deeper retracement if key supports fail.

Rising Support Holds—for Now

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s latest price behavior continues to trade above an ascending support line that has guided higher lows since mid-2025. Such trendlines often act as sentiment gauges rather than hard barriers, reflecting whether buyers are consistently willing to step in at progressively higher levels.

Bitcoin’s trend remains bullish above “Point D,” with a break likely triggering a pullback to $79.6K–$79.9K. Source: SNOGY on TradingView

Market analysts note that as long as Bitcoin holds above this rising support—often labeled “Point D” on several charts—the bullish structure remains technically valid. Historically, during previous Bitcoin uptrends, similar ascending supports have either held and produced continuation rallies or failed and led to corrective moves in the 10%–20% range before a new equilibrium formed.

A decisive break below this support would not automatically signal a long-term trend reversal. Instead, it would suggest that short-term demand is weakening. In that case, traders are watching the $79,600–$79,900 zone, an area that aligns with prior consolidation, short-term liquidity concentration, and overlapping Fibonacci and VWAP levels commonly referenced in Bitcoin technical analysis today. These levels should be viewed as reaction zones rather than predictive targets.

Elliott Wave Outlook Highlights Key Invalidations

Elliott Wave analyst Michael “BigBullMike” van de Poppe has emphasized that while Bitcoin has fallen below his earlier $81,000–$82,000 downside target from the $100,000 peak, the broader bullish count remains valid above $74,800.

Bitcoin drops below $81–82K, bullish above $74.8K, with a potential ABC correction to $67K if support fails. Source: BigBullMike7335 via X

“Since we recently lost that level, I’ve zoomed back out to my higher-timeframe counts and will simply let the structure reveal itself over 2026,” he said, highlighting a shift away from short-term forecasting toward structural monitoring.

Elliott Wave models, however, are inherently interpretive and frequently revised as new price data emerges. Van de Poppe’s framework places strong emphasis on invalidation levels, meaning a sustained move below $74,800 would negate the primary bullish count and open the door to an alternative bearish scenario. That scenario outlines a classic ABC correction, with a potential downside zone near $67,000 derived from historical structure and Fibonacci confluence.

Importantly, these levels represent conditional scenarios rather than forecasts. Rapid changes in liquidity, macro conditions, or market positioning could invalidate both bullish and bearish counts, underscoring the adaptive nature of wave-based analysis.

Bulls Point to a Higher Low Near $76K

Despite these downside contingencies, some market participants point to evidence of structural resilience. Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” has highlighted Bitcoin’s recent wick to approximately $77,700 as a potential higher low within the longer-term uptrend that began after the FTX-related bottom in late 2022.

Melker sees Bitcoin’s $77,700 wick as a higher low, keeping the long-term uptrend intact, with $70,000 as key downside risk. Source: The Wolf Of All Streets via X

“If this last wick down was somehow the bottom, then bullish market structure from the FTX lows is still intact,” Melker said.

Melker’s analysis places greater weight on market structure and swing lows rather than invalidation thresholds. From this perspective, the $76,000 region represents a higher low compared with the April 2025 bottom near $74,500. Some traders interpret the drop below the November 2025 low around $80,500 as a stop-loss sweep—an event that has frequently occurred during prior Bitcoin cycles before upside continuation.

The contrast between these views illustrates why analyst conclusions diverge: structural analysts focus on trend persistence, while wave-based models respond more sharply to specific price violations.

Monthly and Weekly Closes Remain Critical

While short-term charts offer mixed signals, higher-timeframe data continues to shape the broader Bitcoin price outlook. January is on track to close as Bitcoin’s fourth consecutive red monthly candle, a rare sequence that historically coincides with periods of market exhaustion rather than trend acceleration.

Bitcoin’s $76K low may signal a higher low, but a relief rally awaits confirmation from monthly and weekly closes. Source: MasterAnanda on TradingView

At the same time, trading volume remains lower than during the late-2025 distribution phase, and several momentum indicators remain deeply oversold. Comparable conditions were observed during the February–April 2025 correction, when price stabilized only after prolonged consolidation rather than an immediate reversal.

As a result, traders broadly agree that confirmation must come from weekly and monthly closes rather than intraday moves. Until those timeframes resolve, Bitcoin price news today is likely to reflect tactical positioning instead of long-term conviction.

Bitcoin and Global Liquidity: Macro Backdrop Behind Rising Volatility

Beyond technical considerations, Bitcoin’s current pullback is unfolding within a restrictive macro environment. Tight global liquidity, cautious central-bank signaling, and uneven risk appetite across asset classes continue to influence capital allocation toward BTC and other digital assets.

Historically, Bitcoin price forecast models have shown sensitivity to real-yield trends and dollar liquidity conditions. While Bitcoin is often positioned as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, shorter-term price behavior has repeatedly reflected periods of financial tightening before longer-term narratives reassert themselves.

This backdrop helps explain why the bitcoin price remains volatile today despite ongoing discussions about ETFs, adoption trends, and halving-related supply dynamics. Until liquidity conditions stabilize, analysts expect price action to remain reactive rather than trend-driven.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin Price Prediction?

In the near term, Bitcoin price prediction is best framed as a set of conditional scenarios rather than directional forecasts. Holding above rising support keeps the bullish structure viable and leaves room for a relief rally. A confirmed breakdown—particularly below $74,800—would shift attention toward the $67,000 region as part of a broader corrective process rather than an immediate trend reversal.

Bitcoin was trading at around $78,805.648, down 6.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

For now, Bitcoin predictions remain cautious. Analysts emphasize risk management, confirmation from higher timeframes, and patience around liquidity zones. Rather than focusing on exact price targets, many traders are watching how Bitcoin behaves around support—looking for acceptance, rejection, or consolidation—as the market moves deeper into early 2026.