Bitcoin Rebounds Above $76K, but Analysts See Cycle Bottom Much Lower

Crypto markets experienced another bout of forced selling over the past 24 hours, which pushed Bitcoin (BTC) briefly toward $74,000 before rebounding above $76,800. The asset is down 13% over the past week.

Market data cited by analysts now suggest a deeper bear market and a lower projected cycle bottom.

Deeper Cycle Lows

Prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit has revised his expectations for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom, lowering his projected price range to between $54,000 and $44,000.

He explained that the recent decline coincided with a critical technical development. Doctor Profit found that Bitcoin lost the 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly), which he describes as a crucial indicator that separates bull and bear market conditions. He points out that BTC’s break above this same moving average in October 2023 was the confirmation of the previous bull market. He argued that losing it again, two years later, and in line with the broader market cycle, points to a transition into a bear market.

Doctor Profit also cited the emergence of a death cross as further confirmation, and stated that this setup is very similar to the market structure seen during the 2021-2022 cycle peak and subsequent downturn. He even went on to add that the move below the MA100 Weekly was sharp and decisive, and that it also represents a confirmed breakdown from a bearish flag pattern he has referenced repeatedly over recent weeks.

Looking ahead, the analyst expects Bitcoin to close the coming week below the MA100 Weekly, enter another consolidation phase, and then continue lower toward a $70,000 target, which he believes is not the cycle bottom. While he previously projected a bottom in the $50,000-$60,000 range, an outlook he first shared when Bitcoin was trading between $115,000 and $125,000, he now said that updated models point to even lower levels.

Based on his recalculations, Doctor Profit placed the new bottom zone between $54,000 and $44,000, calling this range the most likely area for the true cycle low. He also flagged the asset’s drop below Strategy’s average entry price of around $76,000 as an additional source of risk, and argued that this development could intensify fear and panic in the market.

A significant portion of Strategy’s Bitcoin was acquired using leverage, and the firm’s stock, used as collateral, has been declining. This has made stabilization more difficult with BTC below the firm’s cost basis. Doctor Profit also added that Strategy’s overall Bitcoin position is now roughly flat on a profit-and-loss basis, while emphasizing that no profits were ever taken.

He even warned that additional fear could be driven by external narratives, including speculation linked to the release of Epstein-related files, which he says may fuel emotional selling regardless of their validity.

BTC May Need a New Narrative

Further adding to the bearish outlook, Matrixport’s recent market update shed light on weakening demand from traditional finance investors through spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to the firm, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows, even as many US wealth managers have only recently enabled client access to these products.

It found that the last month of meaningful inflows occurred in July, and a brief resurgence in October, but overall momentum has deteriorated since the summer. This slowdown has continued despite a strong rally in gold and the continuation of the broader de-dollarization theme. As a result, Matrixport stated that BTC may need a new or refreshed narrative before a durable bottom forms and renewed interest from traditional investors emerges.

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