TRX Bearish Analysis Feb 2

TRX is preparing to descend to the strong support zone at 0.28 dollars, with the RSI dropping to 36 and giving an oversold signal, increasing the likelihood of short-term reaction buying; however, the bearish MACD and Bitcoin’s weak trend warn that the decline could deepen.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

TRX is trading within a clear downtrend on the daily timeframe and is currently consolidating around 0.28 dollars. Tron, which has suffered a -0.94% loss in the last 24 hours, recorded a trading volume of 191.90 million dollars, indicating strong selling pressure behind the decline. The 24-hour price range is squeezed between 0.28-0.29 dollars, showing market uncertainty. In multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances on 1W, reinforcing the overall bearish bias. The market reveals that TRX has lost short-term momentum amid the risk-off trend in the broader crypto ecosystem.

The Tron network has drawn attention with increased stablecoin transfers recently, but price performance has failed to keep up with these fundamental developments. On the daily chart, the price continues to stay below the EMA20 (0.29 dollars), maintaining the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal and struggling to test the 0.30 dollar resistance. This situation reflects a liquidity-driven correction process, as emphasized in investors’ TRX spot analyses. The relative stagnation in volume indicates a lack of sufficient fuel for a sudden upward breakout, while a potential BTC dump could pull TRX even lower.

In recent weeks, altcoin rotation has continued, but even established projects like TRX have not been immune to general market fear. In this context, we observe strengthening short positions in the TRX futures market for breakdowns below 0.28 dollars; however, oversold conditions could activate dip buyers.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The most critical support level stands out at 0.2818 dollars (score: 88/100); this zone is located at the intersection of recent lows on the daily chart and Fibonacci retracements on the 3D timeframe, and it is an area that has successfully bounced from high-volume tests. At a lower level, 0.2766 dollars (score: 72/100) aligns with the weekly pivot point, and a break here could accelerate selling momentum. In a deeper scenario, 0.2706 dollars (score: 62/100) comes into play; this level is an extension of the long-term trendline on the 1W chart and is strengthened by MTF confluence. Holding these supports increases the potential for a local bottom, while breakdowns could lead to a cascade effect toward 0.26 levels.

Resistance Barriers

The first and strongest resistance is positioned at 0.2898 dollars (score: 91/100); this is the confluence of EMA20 and the daily pivot, acting as a ceiling where recent rallies were rejected. 0.2958 dollars (score: 73/100) represents the resistance cluster on the 3D chart, and breaking it requires volume increase. Additionally, 0.2851 dollars (score: 67/100) overlaps with short-term swing highs, serving as an intermediate resistance. Upward momentum should not be expected without sustained closes above these barriers; otherwise, the bearish structure persists.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is approaching the oversold region at 36.06, setting the stage for a potential short-term divergence or reaction rally; however, sales may not be contained as long as the trend continues. The MACD indicator confirms negative momentum with a bearish histogram, with the MACD line below the signal line reflecting the downtrend’s strength. The price staying below EMA20 (0.29 dollars) reinforces the short-term bearish structure, while the Supertrend pointing to the 0.30 dollar resistance forms a critical threshold for an upward flip. Bollinger Bands are contracting, with a volatility explosion expected, likely downward. Overall trend strength can be described as moderately bearish with the ADX indicator reading above 25, requiring caution against sudden reversals.

Across multiple timeframes, RSI shows recovery signals on 1H, but escape from oversold on daily and weekly appears distant. The widening MACD histogram signals continued selling pressure, while the volume profile indicates buyers have not yet entered. This dynamic suggests TRX will stick to its overall trend.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In terms of risk/reward ratio, from the current 0.28 level, the bearish target at 0.2395 (score:4) offers a low-risk short opportunity, while the bullish target at 0.3347 (score:44) yields an R/R ratio of about 1:2 – but realization is difficult due to resistance clusters. With the downtrend dominant, confirmation above 0.2898 is required for long positions; otherwise, short bias is preferred. Volatility risk is high, with stop-losses placed 1-2% below supports. In a positive scenario, RSI divergence leads to a retest of 0.30, while a 0.27 breakdown in the negative triggers deep selling. Overall outlook is neutrally bearish, dependent on news flow or BTC movements.

Considering market makers’ behaviors and liquidity pools, testing the 0.2818 support is likely; consolidation if held, accelerated decline on breakout. Investors should monitor Bitcoin spot analysis to manage correlation risk.

Bitcoin Correlation

As one of the altcoins with high correlation to Bitcoin, TRX is directly affected by BTC’s downtrend at 78,776 dollars; despite BTC’s +0.78% 24-hour gain, the overall trend is bearish, and the Supertrend signal is a red alert for altcoins. BTC’s critical supports at 77,530, 74,604, and 63,235 dollars should be watched; breaks here could quickly pull TRX below 0.27. On resistances, 79,396, 82,057, and 84,450 dollars are key for BTC rally – if surpassed, TRX could test 0.30+. Rising BTC dominance will accelerate altcoin selling, making TRX longs risky below BTC 77.5k and supporting short scenarios.