Morgan Stanley: Warsh's Fed may exacerbate volatility in the US Treasury market.

PANews reported on February 3 that Morgan Stanley stated that if Kevin Warsh were to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman, his tendency to reduce public communication could exacerbate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and advocated that investors make their own judgments about the economy and policy, rather than relying on the Fed's views.

Morgan Stanley analysts point out that Warsh may prefer a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet, which could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve compared to short-term yields. Furthermore, he may reduce communication with the market, such as cutting back on media interaction before FOMC meetings, and may even eliminate tools like the dot plot, which would increase the likelihood of policy surprises and fuel market uncertainty.

However, some investors believe that Warsh may place greater emphasis on data-driven decision-making, which could foster consensus within the Federal Reserve. Jeffrey Palma, head of multi-asset solutions at Cohn & Stiles, said that Warsh may be one of the recent candidates most inclined to respond to data changes.