Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock: Shares Plunge 18% as CEO Warns of More Pain Ahead

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk stock crashed 18% in Copenhagen after issuing 2026 guidance showing sales and operating profit declining 5% to 13%
• CEO Mike Doustdar warns investors “it goes down before it comes back up” due to lower U.S. pricing on Wegovy
• 2026 outlook was 8% below analyst expectations at the midpoint, driven by Most Favoured Nations agreement and competition
• Despite strong Wegovy pill launch with 170,000 users in four weeks, pricing pressures on existing products offset gains
• Rival Eli Lilly shares also fell 3.9% on the news as concerns spread across the GLP-1 market

Novo Nordisk delivered a harsh reality check to investors Tuesday night. The Danish drugmaker pre-released its 2026 guidance, showing both sales and operating profit will drop between 5% and 13%.

The stock plummeted 18% in Copenhagen trading Wednesday. American depositary shares had already fallen 14.6% in New York the day before.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The guidance stunned Wall Street. BofA analyst Sachin Jain noted the 2026 sales forecast came in about 8% below consensus at the midpoint.

This marks the second major guidance cut in less than a year. Last July, Novo slashed its 2025 outlook, sending shares down 23% in a single day.

The company pointed to several culprits for the weak outlook. The Most Favoured Nations agreement in the U.S. is forcing lower prices. The semaglutide molecule patent is expiring in certain international markets. Competition from both compounding pharmacies and Eli Lilly continues to intensify.

Wegovy Pill Can’t Overcome Pricing Pressure

Novo had reason for optimism heading into 2026. The Wegovy pill launch exceeded expectations with 170,000 patients after just four weeks on the market.

Compounding pharmacies selling cheaper knockoff versions of semaglutide continue to eat into market share. Eli Lilly’s competing products add more pressure.

The Numbers Tell the Story

For full-year 2025, Novo reported sales increased 6% in Danish kroner and 10% at constant exchange rates to DKK 309.1 billion. Operating profit decreased 1% in Danish kroner and increased 6% at constant exchange rates to DKK 127.7 billion.

Excluding transformation costs, operating profit would have increased 6% in Danish kroner and 13% at constant exchange rates.

U.S. operations saw sales increase 3% in Danish kroner and 8% at constant exchange rates during 2025. International operations performed better with a 10% increase in Danish kroner and 14% at constant exchange rates.

Barclays analysts suggested some might view the guidance as a “kitchen sink” that will be beaten. But they noted the same was said last year, and that didn’t happen.

The ripple effects hit competitors too. Eli Lilly shares closed down 3.9% as concerns spread across the GLP-1 market.

The company also announced Dave Moore, Head of US Operations, will leave for personal reasons and will be succeeded by Jamey Millar.

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