ETC Technical Analysis Feb 4

Strong downtrend (LH/LL structure) dominates in ETC; break below $9.20 support signals trend continuation, BOS above $10.13 indicates character change.

Market Structure Overview

ETC is exhibiting a clear downtrend at the current $9.59 price level. This structure is defined by successive lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL); there’s consolidation between the recent swing high of $10.1340 and low of $9.2000. Trading below the short-term EMA20 ($10.90) reinforces the bearish short-term structure. Although RSI at 28.43 is approaching the oversold region, the MACD with a negative histogram confirms downward momentum. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 7 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, balanced on 3D, resistance-heavy (3) on 1W. This supports the overall bearish bias, but holding $9.20 offers short-term recovery potential. Market structure analysis defines higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) as a bullish trend, lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) as a bearish trend; ETC is currently in LH/LL, meaning the downtrend is dominant.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For HH/HL structure, the critical threshold is a close above the recent swing high of $10.1340 (score:69/100) and formation of a new higher high. Currently, price is below EMA20 and near the 24h low of $9.19; bullish continuation target $13.1929 (low score:27) is distant. Even with RSI oversold, there’s no divergence, and Supertrend is bearish ($11.55 resistance). Potential recovery depends on $9.57 (score:66/100), but a sustained HH/HL requires a break above $10.90 EMA. This level would be a bullish BOS (break of structure) and change the trend character (CHoCH).

Downtrend Risk

LH/LL structure is clear: Recent LH $10.1340, LL $9.2000 (score:81/100). Price at $9.59 is within this range, with bearish breakdown target $6.3281 (score:22). 24h -0.83% drop and BTC correlation increase the risk. Break below LL ($9.20) brings a new lower low, confirming the downtrend. Watch: Erosion of minor support at $9.57 signals LH/LL continuation.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS is the level that breaks the trend structure; bullish BOS requires a close above $10.1340 (break of recent LH), bearish BOS below $9.2000 (break of recent LL). $10.13 BOS initiates HH, with CHoCH (change of character) signaling a bullish shift. Conversely, $9.20 break deepens LH/LL, targeting $6.33. On MTF, 1W resistances ($11.55 Supertrend) hinder bullish BOS. These levels invalidate the structure: Upward BOS disrupts the current bearish setup, downward BOS crushes bullish hopes. For trading: Spot ETC Spot Analysis, futures ETC Futures Analysis.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Main swing high $10.1340 (score:69/100) defines the downtrend as LH. This level is resistance; its break is bullish BOS. Previous highs form the LH chain, reinforced by $11.55 Supertrend. Importance: Rejection at $10.13 offers short opportunity; break triggers long.

Recent Swing Lows

Strong swing low $9.2000 (score:81/100), LL support. $9.5700 (66/100) minor. These lows preserve the downtrend structure; holding $9.20 offers bounce hope, break is sell signal. Swing points determine trend direction: LLs confirm downtrend, HHs confirm uptrend.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $75,819 (%-3.02), Supertrend bearish; altcoins like ETC are highly correlated, BTC decline pressures ETC. If BTC supports at $75,399/$72,903 break, ETC tests $9.20. If BTC resistance $77,776 breaks, ETC recovers toward $10.13. Rising BTC dominance crushes alts; watch BTC $61,211 major support for overall risk.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

ETC structure is bearish LH/LL; consolidation in $9.59 range, but MTF resistance weight maintains downtrend bias. CHoCH requires $10.13 BOS, otherwise $9.20 break deepens LL. Oversold RSI may provide bounce, but MACD/EMA remain bearish. Short bias until structure turns neutral: Long if LL holds, short if LH breaks. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; regular HH/HL/LH/LL checks essential. Overall, trend continuation likely; wait for BOS for reversal.