“Something Went Wrong”: Mike Novogratz Reacts to Bitcoin Sudden Drop
The recent Bitcoin drop below $73,000 has caught prominent investor Mike Novogratz off guard, arguing that the move runs counter to broader financial trends that would normally support BTC.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Novogratz said Bitcoin is currently behaving in a way few expected, particularly given the macroeconomic backdrop. “Bitcoin was not supposed to act like this. Something went wrong,” Novogratz remarked.
Key Points
- Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz says Bitcoin’s drop to the $70,000 range is unexpected.
- Novogratz highlights strong traditional markets—gold, Nasdaq, and lower interest rates—which are normally favorable for Bitcoin.
- In his view, profit-taking by long-term holders is a major factor contributing to the recent drop in Bitcoin.
- Market sentiment is now pessimistic, but Novogratz expects near-term trading between $70,000 and $100,000.
- Quantum computing fears influence some investors, though Novogratz considers them overstated and manageable.
Unexpected Bitcoin Decline Despite Supportive Markets
Novogratz contrasted Bitcoin’s weakness with strength across traditional markets. Gold has climbed to a fresh record high, U.S. equity indices such as the Nasdaq continue to advance, and interest rates have moved lower—conditions that typically ease financial stress and favor risk assets.
He also pointed to the Trump administration’s increasingly pro-crypto stance as another tailwind. Taken together, these factors would normally provide support for Bitcoin. Instead, prices have moved sharply lower. According to Novogratz, the divergence suggests short-term market forces are overwhelming otherwise favorable macro conditions.
Profit-Taking After a Historic Run
To explain the downturn, Novogratz focused on investor behavior following Bitcoin’s extraordinary long-term rally. He noted that the cryptocurrency has delivered dramatic gains since its early days, trading at single-digit prices roughly 16 years ago. Over time, investors entered at every stage—from double digits to well into five figures.
That long ascent ultimately carried Bitcoin above $100,000, culminating in an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. Once that psychological milestone was breached, many long-term holders chose to lock in profits. As selling accelerated, prices began to retreat.
At the time of the interview, Bitcoin was trading near $76,467. Novogratz described this level as close to the lower end of the near-term trading range he expects.
“We’re Getting Close to the Bottom”
Novogratz said much of the excess leverage that amplified earlier price swings has now been flushed out of the system. He added that market sentiment has turned broadly pessimistic, a condition often associated with potential bottoms. “We’re getting close to the bottom,” Novogratz said.
Based on those factors, he expects Bitcoin to trade between $70,000 and $100,000 in the near term.
Still, he emphasized that price action is driven as much by psychology as by mechanics. Prolonged declines take an emotional toll on investors, and once selling begins, it can reinforce itself. Early believers who once refused to sell are now more willing to reduce exposure, making the environment increasingly difficult for holders.
Quantum Computing Fears in Focus
Alongside profit-taking, fears around quantum computing have also weighed on sentiment. Novogratz pushed back on those concerns, arguing they are being overstated. While he acknowledged the technology is real, he told Bloomberg it remains far from practical deployment.
He said Bitcoin’s underlying code can evolve as technology advances. In his view, the network will adapt well before quantum systems pose a real threat. Still, the issue has influenced decisions elsewhere in the market.
Last month, Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy, Christopher Wood, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing quantum risks.
Similarly, Coinbase has warned that quantum computing could become a long-term challenge for cryptocurrencies.
More recently, the Ethereum Foundation elevated post-quantum security to a strategic priority by creating a dedicated team.
Shifting Investor Psychology
Taken together, Novogratz sees the current downturn as a reflection of changing investor psychology rather than a sign of structural weakness. He said the long-standing culture of holding Bitcoin indefinitely has softened. As early adopters take profits, selling pressure builds and feeds on itself.
Rather than signaling a fundamental breakdown, Novogratz views the move as a test of conviction during a period of transition—one shaped less by macro forces and more by shifting sentiment among long-time holders.
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